Severe Weather Threat - December 12-14, 2022

[TH2002]

The Pollock cell has had an impressive hook echo and couplet for the past several scans. Surprised I haven't noticed anything on CC yet.

 

[TornadoFan]

CC drop near Robeline, LA

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Mesoscale Discussion 2023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana...Western Mississippi...Far
Southeast Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 583...584...

Valid 140231Z - 140430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583, 584 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to gradually increase across
far southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and western Mississippi.
Wind damage, tornadoes and hail will be possible with the more
intense storms.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar out of Jackson, Mississippi
and Fort Polk, Louisiana show two lines of strong convection. The
two lines are parallel to each other, both oriented from southwest
to northeast across northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas. The
western most line, which is located along and near the instability
axis, has been the most severe. But the line further east has been
gradually intensifying. These storms are located along and near the
axis of an 850 mb jet with winds at between 50 and 60 knots. The
strong low-level flow is contributing to 0-3 km storm relative
helicities of over 500 m2/s2, evident on RAP forecast soundings.
This shear environment will continue to be favorable for supercells
and tornadoes for the remainder of the evening. This threat, along
with a potential for wind damage, should move gradually eastward
toward the Mississippi River over the next few hours.

..Broyles.. 12/14/2022

 

[TornadoFan]

Mesoscale Discussion 2024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas into southern...and
central Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 583...

Valid 140248Z - 140415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to remain past the 04z
expiration of WW583. A replacement tornado watch will be coordinated
shortly.

DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, regional radar trends suggest
convection has strengthened across east TX ad southern/central LA in
response to increasing deep-layer ascent and the eastward shift of
the low-level jet axis. Additional convective development appears
likely owing to an uncapped, moist and highly sheared warm sector
evident from the 00z LCH sounding and area VAD/VWPs. CAMs suggest
the highest probability for new development/maturation of supercells
is on several warm advection confluence bands ahead of the slow
moving cold front from far southeast TX into central LA. With strong
shear and sufficient buoyancy in place through much of the night,
the risk for supercells and a few tornadoes will continue past the
04z expiration of WW583. A new watch will be coordinated to replace
it.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Potent-looking supercell approaching the MS River northeast of Monroe, LA.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Is this running a little farther north than anticipated?

 

[buckeye05]

Heavy damage to the Union Villa Apartments near Farmerville, LA according to police. There was a TDS there earlier.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

New tornado watch issued for parts of LA to cover the discrete cells firing up between Lake Charles and the Ft. Polk/Alexandria area. Remains to be seen if any of them can sustain long enough to produce, all the warnings are with the storms moving into MS.

 

[buckeye05]

Holy moly. The damage in Farmerville, LA is much, much worse than I thought it was gonna be. Numerous injuries reported, and apparently a mobile home park was also damaged.

 

[TH2002]

The cell immediately southwest of Mittie, LA is definitely trying.

 

[TH2002]

This thing needs a warning.


edit: And there it is

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Cell SW of Tallulah now radar confirmed TORR, although I don't really see it.

 

[buckeye05]

It's warned now.

 

[TornadoFan]

Cell SW of Tallulah now radar confirmed TORR, although I don't really see it.

There's a definite CC drop on it.

 

[buckeye05]

Cell SW of Tallulah now radar confirmed TORR, although I don't really see it.

I certainly do

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I certainly do
View attachment 16016

For some reason my GR Level 3 only seems to display half (or less) of the scans on some radar sites. On KDGX I got one scan at 10:23, the next not till 10:31. Yet I'm getting updates on KPOE every two minutes.

 

[TornadoFan]

Mittie, LA storm now TOR warned.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This seems pretty typical for a Louisiana setup with strong low-level shear. I remember a few others that behaved like this in recent years. The soundings will pop up with some of the most dangerous-looking hodographs you've ever seen on a date that wasn't 4/27/2011, yet storms will struggle to sustain intense updrafts for some reason (perhaps lapse rates at some level) and you will see long lulls without any warnings. However there is always the chance one could pulse up at the wrong time, with disastrous results.

 

[buckeye05]

Supposed photo of the Delhi, LA tornado per Twitter