Yep, I am surprised at the lack of convection and shear...but no reason to get bogged down in the details yet...it is the NAMAnd it appears the NAM may have just began to cave. Pretty good slowdown.
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Yep, I am surprised at the lack of convection and shear...but no reason to get bogged down in the details yet...it is the NAMAnd it appears the NAM may have just began to cave. Pretty good slowdown.
Do I need to turn the April Fool's filter back on? Never A Miss (NAM)Yep, I am surprised at the lack of convection and shear...but no reason to get bogged down in the details yet...it is the NAM
Now the GFS is slower than even the NAM with a 997mb slp sitting over southern MO at 18z 4/5. Normally that is a extremely dangerous position, yet the models want to keep directional shear low as winds are very unidirectional.
Yep, it's ignoring the isallobaric response from the surface pressure falls and the mid-level height falls. I'd kinda buy that some if there was a LLJ disruption with it shifting away, from the predawn/morning convection. But this run does not have that. It has a 40-45 kt LLJ up through AL at 18Z, with a solid tongue of 75+ temps up to the OH Valley. There are no leftover cold pools or weird surface wind signatures associated with effective boundaries. So, that means it isn't because of convective contamination... it's because the GFS isn't responding to the pressure falls. It's something both the NAM and GFS are notorious for doing until almost the last minute... and is the reason the NAM only had 0-3 km SRH of 250-300 over AL 36 hrs before 4/27....
Good point Fred, the NAM epecially has issues with low level shear in this kind of environment. Based on what I see this morning, the SPC needs to expand the probabilities a westward. There are several ingredients here that could make it a dangerous day.Yep, it's ignoring the isallobaric response from the surface pressure falls and the mid-level height falls. I'd kinda buy that some if there was a LLJ disruption with it shifting away, from the predawn/morning convection. But this run does not have that. It has a 40-45 kt LLJ up through AL at 18Z, with a solid tongue of 75+ temps up to the OH Valley. There are no leftover cold pools or weird surface wind signatures associated with effective boundaries. So, that means it isn't because of convective contamination... it's because the GFS isn't responding to the pressure falls. It's something both the NAM and GFS are notorious for doing until almost the last minute... and is the reason the NAM only had 0-3 km SRH of 250-300 over AL 36 hrs before 4/27....
They barely have places with >1500 J/KG CAPE in the thunder category. Why am I not shocked anymore?Good point Fred, the NAM epecially has issues with low level shear in this kind of environment. Based on what I see this morning, the SPC needs to expand the probabilities a westward. There are several ingredients here that could make it a dangerous day.
How much futher west in your opinion. Not that they its gospel or anything but the high res nam does not show any storm initiation until about Tuscaloosa Co. Assuming storms build from there that falls in line with current risk area nicely. You guys thinking this initiates in MS putting more of AL in play? Or are you saying a slight shift to the west? Cape looks pretty good to me.Good point Fred, the NAM epecially has issues with low level shear in this kind of environment. Based on what I see this morning, the SPC needs to expand the probabilities a westward. There are several ingredients here that could make it a dangerous day.
I could see storm initiation around central Mississippi with the front around 10am...I am thinking much of Alabama will be in play.How much futher west in your opinion. Not that they its gospel or anything but the high res nam does not show any storm initiation until about Tuscaloosa Co. Assuming storms build from there that falls in line with current risk area nicely. You guys thinking this initiates in MS putting more of AL in play? Or are you saying a slight shift to the west? Cape looks pretty good to me.
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How much futher west in your opinion. Not that they its gospel or anything but the high res nam does not show any storm initiation until about Tuscaloosa Co. Assuming storms build from there that falls in line with current risk area nicely. You guys thinking this initiates in MS putting more of AL in play? Or are you saying a slight shift to the west? Cape looks pretty good to me.
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12Z nam showing cold front just west of TCL st 21z. Cape is over 3000. SRH is very meager but I am sure the NAM is underplaying.