The 00Z NAM and 00Z UKMET (which does about as well with synoptics as the Euro) say a slower solution is right. We'll see. The op GFS has been the faster model on other runs too... even of its own ensembles. Pretty much, every scrap of guidance that's not the op GFS... would have to speed up for the op GFS to be right with its timing.
Thanks Fred, this goes to show I really shouldn't try to look at and analyze model guidance when I'm dog tired
Either way, this looks to be a long next few days with two legit severe threats in the next 96 hours or so