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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17 (2 Viewers)

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
4/27 was a complete bust outside of the mayflower/vilonia monster. When we're talking about a 3-day outbreak and only one of them is qualified as a non-bust, I think we can safely call the event as a whole a bust. It was literally 2 highs and a moderate.

Is it just me, or is the SPC day 4 outlook a bit east of most model guidance (outside of the GFS)?
That was in reference to BMX CWA outlook and largely in reference to AL....

And the SPC doesn't have MS in the outlook...but Euro and company would have a potential powder keg across the state for Wednesday. I don't understand 90% of what the SPC does anymore.
 

ARCC

Member
Messages
417
Location
Coosa county
I didn't realize that BMX already had it "Enhanced" risk with a confidence factor of 3. When was our last big outbreak or significant threat. I keep thinking 4/27-28/14, but that one fell flat for the most part.
I wouldn't say 4/28/14 fell flat. It turned out to be the 4th largest outbreak in AL history (23 tornadoes), but the potential on the third day (4/29) was limited due to the occluded nature of the trough and the stalled MCS. It could've been much worse, but it wasn't a slouch.

But the deep layer shear on 4/28/14 wasn't favorable for long track tornadoes. We had them cycling every 10-15 miles, which limited the strength. The deep layer shear here supports longer tracked supercells....


Yeah the fell flat was mostly talking about the 28th, but I had forgot the 27th had some many tornadoes. I do definitely remembering that the 28th could have been much worse.
 

xJownage

Member
Messages
366
Location
Jacksonville, Florida
That was in reference to BMX CWA outlook and largely in reference to AL....
ah, my mistake.

And the SPC doesn't have MS in the outlook...but Euro and company would have a potential powder keg across the state for Wednesday. I don't understand 90% of what the SPC does anymore.
It's okay, nobody does lately. I'm guessing they were trending towards the GFS and thought the probability of it staying that far west was slim, but they're basically fighting every relevant mid-range model by doing so.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
And the UKMET doubles down on Wednesday. Sticking to it's guns for a larger, higher end event. Slower in timing puts Dixie under the gun. Onto the Euro which will be running in about an hour. The CMC slowed a touch to, but still timing would be a very large fly in the ointment.



Still it's European vs. North American models.
 

ARCC

Member
Messages
417
Location
Coosa county
And the UKMET doubles down on Wednesday. Sticking to it's guns for a larger, higher end event. Slower in timing puts Dixie under the gun. Onto the Euro which will be running in about an hour. The CMC slowed a touch to, but still timing would be a very large fly in the ointment.

Still it's European vs. North American models.

Wow that is a nasty look.
 

GTWXAlum

Member
Messages
86
Location
Orlando, FL
From the naked eye on the free Euro maps, the 12z still looks slower with the front than the GFS for Wednesday although not by much
 

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