That morning round looks quite potent as well. This isn't going to be your organized cold pool MCS type of convection. This will be scattered storm cluster/supercells and then strong LLJ response ensures the afternoon is round #2 for severe wx.
That tells me widespread junk convection looks unlikely. Strong EML should allow great moisture advection into the afternoon.....NAM showing some juicy LRs in the afternoon.
very nice sounding but we see that all the time on the NAM. [emoji1] Wed will be interesting I think. The only thing Im cofident is we will see some type of severe wx. I know others have said the morning convection clears out in a hurry but with the way things have gone recently you have to wonder how much that will limit severe wx. Interesting and difficult forecast.The sounding for near BHM same time as image above.
It might be helpful to discuss how this situation is different compared to what we have seen this year. To begin, I do not see any kind of mcs along the coast. What develops down there moves north and then quickly east-I am guessing that is the mid level dry air arriving. Also, although not as much as in previous runs, this s/w is a little more contained, compact and less spread out and messy that we usually see along with strong hieght falls near the coast.
are you asking me?
Yeah some very impressive soundings off of NAM12km/3km and the GFS. They are coming in line with the Euro on timing too with the front coming through between 21-03Z.The 18z models actually made me shake.........they looked that scary. I even saw a couple 00z 04/04/74 Alabama analogs for ATL at 18z WED
Just a general inquiry, but if you wouldn't mind, though I know it's not your area.
