Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

MikeP said:
I'm not comparing in any way, but what happened 4/27/11 that allowed for both morning and afternoon tornadoes? Would typically think that after the morning convection, that would have stabilized things for the afternoon. But as we all know, that didn't happen.....
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The morning storms moved very fast from west to east during the early pre-dawn hours...so they didn't block moisture from moving north and they were out of the area shortly after sunrise.
 
PerryW said:
I wouldnt want to be anywhere on Wednesday afternoon that might put me or my children in harm's way. Unless it is an extreme emergency, I'd postpone. Vehicles are the last place you want to be with a strong or violent tornado approaching.
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Exactly. an EF0 went over my car once and that was not an experience I want to repeat.
I can be at the dentist or I can be at a friend's who has a basement. We've had 9 EF2-EF4 tornadoes within 5 miles of my house and two of those went through my neighborhood (an EF2 through my back yard) and the last three tornadic storms we've had have had my street in the crosshairs. If I don't *need* to be at the friend's and can be at the dentist, that's one thing. I have to reschedule 24 hours out, so I figured before putting off an appointment that will take weeks to get in again, I'd ask people with more experience than me. But if it's going to get bad, I'd much rather play it safe than sorry and just go to my friend's place.

Richardjacks, thank you! I'm out of practice reading the models and our mets don't seem all that concerned for our area yet. They're still focusing to the south of us and I thought maybe they were seeing something I was missing.
 
PerryW I respect your insight very much! So do you think TN is under the gun too?
 
This has the potential to be a very nasty day for the southeast! Models show multiple rounds of severe weather, and a very broad window of favorable conditions for tornadoes (long track, EF2 or greater), damaging winds, and large hail.
 
ARCC said:
Yes, although it depends how far north the warm front makes it. But right around that boundary could also hold the highest helicity.
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Understood so basically some of the stronger storms may ride that warm front
 
Sheash the wind fields on the 0z NAM are a mess. It is having a very hard time resolving the surface through 850mb on both speed and direction. Good luck trying to figure that out.
 
ARCC said:
Sheash the wind fields on the 0z NAM are a mess. It is having a very hard time resolving the surface through 850mb on both speed and direction. Good luck trying to figure that out.
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It's the early morning wave. Probably won't have a good handle on placement with that until tomorrow night....if then.
 
ARCC said:
Sheash the wind fields on the 0z NAM are a mess. It is having a very hard time resolving the surface through 850mb on both speed and direction. Good luck trying to figure that out.
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I was just about to ask about the NAM....anything else you can report about it?
 
Xenesthis said:
PerryW I respect your insight very much! So do you think TN is under the gun too?
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Thanks.......possibly but that 00z NAM made me think twice. I'm going to wait and see if the 00z was a hiccup because it gave north Georgia cold stable rain and no tornadoes Wednesday
 
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