The morning storms moved very fast from west to east during the early pre-dawn hours...so they didn't block moisture from moving north and they were out of the area shortly after sunrise.
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I am quite concerned for north and central Alabama. Am I 100% confident? not at all, but there is a good bit of data suggesting a volatile environment.
TornadoFan
Member
The GFS seems to show a straight line wind threat for Wednesday.
Kory
Member
Based on what?
Justin Hindman Hindy
Member
Yes early that morning, but as it clears, the atmosphere will reload and based on timing, supeecells will explode somewhere around i65 which is the question of intensity right now if it happens.
Equus
Member
Early morning straight line winds followed by evening supercells on an April Wednesday. Not liking THAT trend
Kory
Member
Early morning looks suepecellular too....
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I've seen that story before and I don't like the ending!
Parysa
Member
Exactly. an EF0 went over my car once and that was not an experience I want to repeat.
I can be at the dentist or I can be at a friend's who has a basement. We've had 9 EF2-EF4 tornadoes within 5 miles of my house and two of those went through my neighborhood (an EF2 through my back yard) and the last three tornadic storms we've had have had my street in the crosshairs. If I don't *need* to be at the friend's and can be at the dentist, that's one thing. I have to reschedule 24 hours out, so I figured before putting off an appointment that will take weeks to get in again, I'd ask people with more experience than me. But if it's going to get bad, I'd much rather play it safe than sorry and just go to my friend's place.
Richardjacks, thank you! I'm out of practice reading the models and our mets don't seem all that concerned for our area yet. They're still focusing to the south of us and I thought maybe they were seeing something I was missing.
Yes I agree, the area would be on the warm front/moisture advection and in a highly sheared atmosphere.
X
Xenesthis
Guest
Do you guys think this makes it into southern middle TN?
- Moderator
- #112
Well, I may not get any sleep tomorrow night...
X
Xenesthis
Guest
PerryW I respect your insight very much! So do you think TN is under the gun too?
- Moderator
- #114
This has the potential to be a very nasty day for the southeast! Models show multiple rounds of severe weather, and a very broad window of favorable conditions for tornadoes (long track, EF2 or greater), damaging winds, and large hail.
ARCC
Member
Yes, although it depends how far north the warm front makes it. But right around that boundary could also hold the highest helicity.
X
Xenesthis
Guest
Understood so basically some of the stronger storms may ride that warm front
ARCC
Member
Sheash the wind fields on the 0z NAM are a mess. It is having a very hard time resolving the surface through 850mb on both speed and direction. Good luck trying to figure that out.
Kory
Member
It's the early morning wave. Probably won't have a good handle on placement with that until tomorrow night....if then.
Psalm 148:8
Member
I was just about to ask about the NAM....anything else you can report about it?
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Thanks.......possibly but that 00z NAM made me think twice. I'm going to wait and see if the 00z was a hiccup because it gave north Georgia cold stable rain and no tornadoes Wednesday
