Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

[Equus]

If the main threat seems to be to the east of Jasper, I can rest a bit easier, but not going to let my guard down for literally anywhere in AL or GA until this moves out Wednesday night.

One good thing though, I'd reckon the drought is almost over now for at least our area; the 3" Sunday night helped with that a bit if the flooded creeks and overwhelmed culverts have anything to say about that.

 

[PerryW]

Lurker here; my question is, will the SPC bust on another day 2 moderate risk, or will this verify?

Just because SPC busted a few days ago means nothing for tomorrow. Unanimous model guidance are progging parameters for a significant, possibly major tornado and severe storm outbreak. It is their obligation to warn the public to the best of their ability, and to be honest, the moderate risk could be even farther north into Georgia per model data. I could easily see this a high risk for Alabama/ Georgia/ South Carolina and moderate risk as far north as Kentucky or even Ohio/ Indiana.

 

[PerryW]

Reading Peachtree City's latest discussion is confusing. They mention winds as the highest risks still and say the tornado threat is a "bit" higher than Monday. It's almost as if they haven't bought in to the SPC yet or are waiting to sound the alarm.

Steve Nelson is their best forecaster (and the SOO), and he's on vacation this week in PCB with his family).

 

[Xenesthis]

Just because SPC busted a few days ago means nothing for tomorrow. Unanimous model guidance are progging parameters for a significant, possibly major tornado and severe storm outbreak. It is their obligation to warn the public to the best of their ability, and to be honest, the moderate risk could be even farther north into Georgia per model data. I could easily see this a high risk for Alabama/ Georgia/ South Carolina and moderate risk as far north as Kentucky or even Ohio/ Indiana.

I totally agree.. I see a major tornado outbreak over a large area! High risk seem probable and frankly it could be a large area with a large moderate. This looks to be a very serious situation and as Perry said all model guidance points to this outcome.

 

[CoffeeCat]

I doubt this post fits here but I'm not sure where else to put it. I live in Covington GA so tomorrow has me very concerned. I live in a manufactured home with nothing but straps to hold it down. May as well be a mobile home. My only alternative for shelter is my fathers house which has a partially exposed basement (one corner built into a hill, the other sides open to the street). Who can I contact about finding a tornado shelter that is open to the public in my area? Whether at my house or my dads, neither feels safe when long track tornadoes are involved.

 

[ARCC]

I doubt this post fits here but I'm not sure where else to put it. I live in Covington GA so tomorrow has me very concerned. I live in a manufactured home with nothing but straps to hold it down. May as well be a mobile home. My only alternative for shelter is my fathers house which has a partially exposed basement (one corner built into a hill, the other sides open to the street). Who can I contact about finding a tornado shelter that is open to the public in my area? Whether at my house or my dads, neither feels safe when long track tornadoes are involved.

Your local courthouse is probably a storm shelter so call them. If not, they can probably direct you to someone who can tell you of one.

 

[warneagle]

I doubt this post fits here but I'm not sure where else to put it. I live in Covington GA so tomorrow has me very concerned. I live in a manufactured home with nothing but straps to hold it down. May as well be a mobile home. My only alternative for shelter is my fathers house which has a partially exposed basement (one corner built into a hill, the other sides open to the street). Who can I contact about finding a tornado shelter that is open to the public in my area? Whether at my house or my dads, neither feels safe when long track tornadoes are involved.

Try contacting your local emergency management officials. I would guess for you that's Newton County EMA, 770-784-2127.

 

[mike36]

I doubt this post fits here but I'm not sure where else to put it. I live in Covington GA so tomorrow has me very concerned. I live in a manufactured home with nothing but straps to hold it down. May as well be a mobile home. My only alternative for shelter is my fathers house which has a partially exposed basement (one corner built into a hill, the other sides open to the street). Who can I contact about finding a tornado shelter that is open to the public in my area? Whether at my house or my dads, neither feels safe when long track tornadoes are involved.

If you're able to get there they have an above ground tornado shelter in Madison, Georgia. It's right across the street from a mobile home park destroyed on April 27 2011. They open it whenever the area goes under a tornado watch. I'll give you the details today.

 

[mike36]

Steve Nelson is their best forecaster (and the SOO), and he's on vacation this week in PCB with his family).

Ok yeah SNelson always writes good detailed discussions. Deese does good also.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

When the 12Z NAM runs in a few, could someone share what it says....not good at all reading severe wx modeling. Praying all models show a somewhat reduced threat today.

 

[Kory]

the consistency of the storms forming just to the w of Tuscaloosa then they mature just after Bham and explode as they move East. At 4pm cape is nill in ttown and helicities are also shunted to the East. Will likely be a long duration event for C and East Al. I would start slight for far w al and can always adjust as other high res models come into play should this threat develop further w or storms initiate sooner. All of that could change thats just where I would start. SPC agrees as they have a slight risk from tusc co line West. I think thats a good call for now.

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And the latest NAM disagrees with that. It's too early to really lessen risks in my opinion....

 

[Psalm 148:8]

And the latest NAM disagrees with that. It's too early to really lessen risks in my opinion....

Can you share a few things that the nam is showing to lessen the risk please? Have family members traveling tomorrow.

 

[Kory]

Can you share a few things that the nam is showing to lessen the risk please? Have family members traveling tomorrow.

My point being, it is UPPING the risk tomorrow. Morning round looks rough per the NAM and it's a powder keg of instability for the afternoon. Just unreal thermos.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

My point being, it is UPPING the risk tomorrow. Morning round looks rough per the NAM and it's a powder keg of instability for the afternoon. Just unreal thermos.

Ok...sorry I misinterpreted.

 

[darkskys25]

And the latest NAM disagrees with that. It's too early to really lessen risks in my opinion....

its nit picking really since we are talking about a pretty small area. i wasnt trying to lesson a risk per se just thinking for that area its a good starting point and was appropriate. id rather ramp up then ramp down. reagardless for many in the state its indeed a serious threat. I think we can agree on that.

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[Equus]

I think it's just safe to say that literally the entire states of AL and GA should be on ultra high alert at this point honestly, to be on the safe side

 

[Xenesthis]

How are you guys feeling about southern middle TN at this point? Like highland rim area McMinnville, Manchester that area

 

[ARCC]

My point being, it is UPPING the risk tomorrow. Morning round looks rough per the NAM and it's a powder keg of instability for the afternoon. Just unreal thermos.

Yep that is rough.

 

[Brax]

Want to put this out here since we're getting in short range model time....
SREF Sigtors are very high for middle GA... Somewhat anticipate this will grow NW a little over the next 8 hours.

(Hard to catch, but the blue area is a sigtor of 8)

 

[GTWXAlum]

3km NAM verbatim shows instability way down in GA from Atlanta northward, but south of there and Alabama is a different story.

Although its certainly close by enough where no area should let their guard down by any means in north Georgia either.