Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

If the latest GFS were to verify, there could be some huge hailers on Wednesday across the southeast with the steep lapse rates progged. And the tornado threat is there as well although wind profiles look a bit unidirectional (at least in Georgia).
 
New day two is a moderate, for pretty much the same area (E and S AL through most of N and central GA into SC)
 
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New Day 2 outlook

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Those are stout probabilities too
 
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
454 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-051300-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
454 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Patchy Dense fog will be possible through 9 AM. Visibilities may be
reduced to less than one miles at times.

Severe thunderstorms may develop as early as 4 AM Wednesday and
could affect all of Central Alabama. Large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The severe weather threat beginning in the pre-dawn hours of
Wednesday will continue through Wednesday evening with the
possibility of two or three rounds of scattered storms. Destructive
and long-track tornadoes will be possible, along with hail up to the
size of baseballs, and damaging straight-line winds. These threats
will encompass all of Central Alabama with the greatest threat area
along and east of a line from Birmingham to Selma.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is likely from
early Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
 
Lurker here; my question is, will the SPC Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency on another day 2 moderate risk, or will this verify?
 
Several questions about how this system evolves.....morning convection? How strong? Effect on afternoon? How much does low deepen? Praying things do not line up for a destructive and deadly day!
 
I haven't used them in years so I don't know how reliable they are, but the WRFs say two things, high risk and tornado outbreak incoming....

Boy that's nasty. I'm not gonna post the images.
 
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ARCC said:
I haven't used them in years so I don't know how reliable they are, but the WRFs say two things, high risk and tornado outbreak incoming....

Boy that's nasty. I'm not gonna post the images.
Click to expand...
The ARW is discrete supercells all day. It's a crazy parameter space. Just gotta see which storms take advantage of it. The CAMs later should shed some more light on tomorrow....I don't wanna use the "H" word, but maybe the magenta color pops up again....
 
Reading Peachtree City's latest discussion is confusing. They mention winds as the highest risks still and say the tornado threat is a "bit" higher than Monday. It's almost as if they haven't bought in to the SPC yet or are waiting to sound the alarm.
 
Kory said:
The ARW is discrete supercells all day. It's a crazy parameter space. Just gotta see which storms take advantage of it. The CAMs later should shed some more light on tomorrow....I don't wanna use the "H" word, but maybe the magenta color pops up again....
Click to expand...

The NMMB is even worse than the ARW.
 
mike36 said:
Reading Peachtree City's latest discussion is confusing. They mention winds as the highest risks still and say the tornado threat is a "bit" higher than Monday. It's almost as if they haven't bought in to the SPC yet or are waiting to sound the alarm.
Click to expand...
That particular forecaster is more conservative than others. That may explain some of it.

I'd expect a much different tune for the afternoon package.
 
Unfortunately this looks like a widespread destructive day across the southeast and Ohio valley! Strong long track tornadoes is the wording from the SPC. I believe this is the storm folks
 
Kory said:
Based on what?
Click to expand...
the consistency of the storms forming just to the w of Tuscaloosa then they mature just after Bham and explode as they move East. At 4pm cape is nill in ttown and helicities are also shunted to the East. Will likely be a long duration event for C and East Al. I would start slight for far w al and can always adjust as other high res models come into play should this threat develop further w or storms initiate sooner. All of that could change thats just where I would start. SPC agrees as they have a slight risk from tusc co line West. I think thats a good call for now.

Sent from my SM-G935P using TalkWeather mobile app
 
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