Yeah, about time someone starts sounding some alarm bells. This is potentially an upper end event....
very well done imo... the only thing i would change is take out the enhanced from Tuscaloosa West and change it to slight. Other than that it looks perfect.The BMX threat area graphic is a little different. Moderate risk area is a little further west, which makes sense.
The ARW is discrete supercells all day. It's a crazy parameter space. Just gotta see which storms take advantage of it. The CAMs later should shed some more light on tomorrow....I don't wanna use the "H" word, but maybe the magenta color pops up again....
Based on what?
That particular forecaster is more conservative than others. That may explain some of it.
I just took a look at both of those, wow. It is amazing how quickly the environment changes tomorrow morning. The CAPE just rushes in all at once... not gradual at all.
the consistency of the storms forming just to the w of Tuscaloosa then they mature just after Bham and explode as they move East. At 4pm cape is nill in ttown and helicities are also shunted to the East. Will likely be a long duration event for C and East Al. I would start slight for far w al and can always adjust as other high res models come into play should this threat develop further w or storms initiate sooner. All of that could change thats just where I would start. SPC agrees as they have a slight risk from tusc co line West. I think thats a good call for now.
