Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 2/27/17-3/2/17

[BayouWeatherGeek]

Tornado warned storm with a decent hook near Mayflower and Maumelle, Arkansas

 

[SilentShadow87]

I'm seeing some damage pictures out of Illinois

Looking like low-end/mid range EF3 damage to me.

 

[warneagle]

Oh you've got to be kidding me. Vilonia is in the warning in Ark. I think I'd be looking into moving if I were living there.

 

[warneagle]

One confirmed fatality in the tornado near Ottawa, Ill.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Looks like there's quite a discrepancy between the number of radar indicated tornadoes and the number of SPC reports - so far they haven't reported a single tornado in Missouri or Arkansas

 

[SilentShadow87]

One confirmed fatality in the tornado near Ottawa, Ill.

That's what I was afraid of
Damage photos are starting to come in showing what appears to be EF3 damage near Ottawa.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Just in case anyone missed this MD:

Mesoscale Discussion 0223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kansas and northern/central
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 010005Z - 010200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms should increase in coverage across the region this
evening, with a growing threat for tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds. Cells will likely organize from portions of
southeastern Kansas northeastward to west-central Illinois over the
next several hours. Tornado watch issuance is likely over northern
Missouri shortly. Additional watch issuance farther south is also
possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Observational data early this evening suggest
increasing large-scale ascent is beginning to overspread the region,
with a few cells developing along surface confluence near the cold
front just east of the Kansas City metro. KSGF VWP data depict a
growing, clockwise-looping hodograph over the last 2-3 hours,
indicating strengthening warm-air advection in response to forcing
for ascent with the approaching trough. As mid-level temperatures
continue to cool, thunderstorms will organize from southeastern
Kansas to northern Missouri.

A pool of higher surface dew points (generally in the lower 60s)
currently exists across northeast OK and southeast KS, and
strengthening low-level south/southwesterly flow should advect this
moisture northeast through the evening. With regional soundings
sampling steep mid-level lapse rates over the region, MLCAPE values
around 1000-2000 J/kg should be realized from southeastern KS into
central MO. Strong southwesterly 850-700-mb flow will enhance
storm-relative helicity considerably, favoring low-level
mesocyclogenesis in any supercellular structures that develop. While
there is some uncertainty with the storm mode due to linear forcing
along the front, recent convection-allowing guidance suggests that a
cluster of supercells may form over the next 2 hours or so.

Considering the kinematic and thermodynamic environment, any
sustained supercell would be capable of tornadoes, with the
potential for a strong tornado or two. These cells would shift
northeast from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri through the
evening and into the overnight hours.

..Picca.. 03/01/2017


ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37279653 38449534 39779355 40379285 40419232 40139178
39549117 38539134 37199346 37009430 37029615 37139643
37279653

 

[Mike S]

Yeah it definitely seems that way. KHTX in Huntsville is also currently down, with a round of severe weather expected here tomorrow.

They had it working for a very short amount of time today then it began overheating so it is back down. I've been using WAFF's radar for this area.

 

[TornadoFan]

Just saw on Twitter that a debris ball showed up near Perryville, MO. Debris lofted up as high as 20,000 feet.

 

[TornadoFan]

And now looks like the small village of Rockwood, Illinois just took a direct hit.

 

[TornadoFan]

Dozen cars flipped over on Interstate 55.

 

[Kory]

Dozen cars flipped over on Interstate 55.

Multiple fatalities on I-55. This looks like it was very violent as it went NE of Perryville and into Rockwood and Ava.

 

[SilentShadow87]

New watch out with 70/50 probs

 

[BayouWeatherGeek]

Livestream of news from Perryville, MO

http://www.kfvs12.com/category/159507/watch-heartland-news-live

 

[Kory]

This one in Illinois is hitting town after town. Massive debris signature. I hate to think of the fatalities that are gonna come from this. PAH needs to issue the tornado emergency NOW.

 

[Helicity]

They had it working for a very short amount of time today then it began overheating so it is back down. I've been using WAFF's radar for this area.

I had not heard that thanks for the update! The one good thing about Huntsville is the redundancy of radars in the area, with news outlets as well as UAH's armor radar

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado is STILL on the ground. Powerflashes still being reported.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah that thing is a monster, no doubt. Wow. That debris signature. No words.

Can't help but notice it's just barely north of the Tri-State Tornado track.

 

[SilentShadow87]

This one in Illinois is hitting town after town. Massive debris signature. I hate to think of the fatalities that are gonna come from this. PAH needs to issue the tornado emergency NOW.

This is awful...both of these are likely EF3+. At this rate today looks to outperform the late January outbreak...and tragically it seems to be taking a lot of lives.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Yeah that thing is a monster, no doubt. Wow. That debris signature. No words.

Link to a live feed?