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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

0Z HRRR goes ham for northern IL with what looks like two rounds, both potentially surface-based with a significant tornado threat. One fires around 20Z and plows into northwest Indiana, while more fire around 23-0Z.
 
CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2026031000-HRRR-FLT1-prec-radar-16-26-100.gif
00z HRRR fires one absolute chonker of a supercell at 20z, and also fires a second round with more discrete convection at first, turning semi-discrete within an hour.
It also fires 2 warm front riders in northern Indiana, along with this insanity of a warm front environment:
1773106479040.png
Taken in northern Illinois
 
It fires in SE KS too around 03z and safe to say, that would be conditional but a major problem in the Plains would any storm get surface based with those profiles. Thermodynamic initiation seems conditional eitherway.

The 00z HRRR doesn't surprise me that it goes ham for IL and depicts a robust scenario fir significant tornadoes on the warm front in N IL.

But firing in KS peaks my interests if that conditionally volatile environment can be poked at.
 
This line so far has seemed to overpower the AL/GA state line storm dissolver machine. Really holding together. Hope it doesn't try to spin anything up as it comes into the metro. Not a lot of people in town are expecting/aware of potential storms tonight.
 
1773107457411.png
"While not overly intense, more organization has been noted within
the MCS over the last two hours, suggesting a consolidated cold pool
and stronger surface pressure gradient has developed. This will
support the potential for damaging gusts (max 60-65 mph), and
possibly a QLCS tornado or two as the convective complex continues
east/southeastward into parts of eastern AL and west-central GA
(including the Atlanta Metro in 1-2 hours) this evening."
 
Ozonelayer said:
00z HRRR fires one absolute chonker of a supercell at 20z, and also fires a second round with more discrete convection at first, turning semi-discrete within an hour.
It also fires 2 warm front riders in northern Indiana, along with this insanity of a warm front environment
Click to expand...
I’m absolutely floored at the instability here. How is this even possible in March? I understand that cells actually taking advantage of this environment is a different story and remains conditional, but my goodness - and with that wind shear profile that is a beast of a sounding. I don’t think it’s going to happen tomorrow because there’s still too many question marks but a violent tornado is definitely possible in that environment.
 
I am really interested in SE KS tomorrow night. That environment is a bit decently volatile and it has a good 2k SBCAPE, 400 SRH, but storms may become elevated. Gonna need a mesoscale rider of sorts to verify the environment down there. If a supercell can fire in that environment and sustain itself, sig hazards is definitely possible.


Funny enough that the 18z disagrees so I'm beginning to think this is just sudden bait from the HRRR. Nothing properly organized actually fires I that environment regardless so I think it's a red herring
 
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