Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

[CheeselandSkies]

*texts sister. She’s in Rockford, is that in that zone?

Probably a bit north of the greatest threat area, but it wouldn't hurt to give her a heads up. Some elevated hailers a distinct possibility there, at the very least.

 

[Kds86z]

Possibly a bit north of the greatest threat area, but it wouldn't hurt to give her a heads up. Some elevated hailers a distinct possibility there, at the very least.

Thanks, she is 48 mins from Rochelle EF4 so.. close enough that my bro in law who’s a cop was on the scene of the destruction. Wouldn’t want anything close to her again.

 

[bckhd2]

New severe warning out including the western ATL suburbs into the core metro west of GA-400.

 

[US_Highway15]

00Z HRRR pipes out the doomsday scenario tomorrow across northern IL/IN. A few longer supercells.

 

[Ozonelayer]

The way I see it, there are 3 areas to watch tomorrow. All of which are very capable of significant severe weather.

Southern and eastern Texas: potentially a dual dryline setup, though both appear to be weak in terms of gradient. Main threat is a very VERY nasty QLCS with some supercells sprinkled in, with large hail and damageing winds being the main show. However if convection can fire in the warmsector from increased forcing and stay discrete then the tornado threat would certainly increase, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out if a supercell anchors itself in the warm sector.

Southeastern KS and southwestern MO: Volitile environment but discrete convection is in question, with it being just as likely nothing fires at all. And if it stays elevated then hail will be the main threat. However, surface based storms would have the potential for a few strong tornadoes if they can root and mature.

Central+Northern Illinois and North/Northwest Indiana: Given the environment at play, any supercell remotely near or along the warm front would have a volitile combination of instability and shear to work with, and several strong tornadoes are possible with any discrete/semi-discrete supercell, and a violent tornado cannot be ruled out.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Weatherguyx]

 

[US_Highway15]

 

[Kds86z]

Probably a bit north of the greatest threat area, but it wouldn't hurt to give her a heads up. Some elevated hailers a distinct possibility there, at the very least.

Thanks. She’s going to be out tomorrow 4-8pm for her kids school thing in rockford. North of biggest threat but with a lifting warmfront who knows.

 

[Kds86z]

If yall don’t want these X forecast posts I won’t btw..

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Personally I don’t mind them before the event, helps gauge what the collective forecast is

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Still kind of waffling between setting up at Galesburg in the most potent parameter space, or straight south to I-80 at La Salle to make sure to not be too far behind if it fires further east and tracks toward the southern Chicago metro as the 0Z sim ref suggests. Don't want to have to core punch something from the north if it's already initiating as I'm en route.

 

[hurricaneguy]

Looks like the severe threat has decreased for TN on Wed. I was going to try to chase around Nashville but probably going to pass

 

[bckhd2]

No major issues with the line as it moved through ATL. Little bit of lightning/thunder, very heavy rain. But nothing to really fuss about

 

[rushdude]

From what I've glanced from some Twitter posts, I'm getting a 'hell may break loose' vibe for NTX

EDIT:


From around Abilene:

 

[Muwx]

I think pretty much all Twitter forecasts should be taken with a heavy grain of salt, especially if it’s from chasers.

 

[N0mz]

Copying and pasting my thoughts from AmericanWX for the mid-Atlantic for Wednesday:

Right now models are progging mostly <1000 MUCAPE and pretty wide temp/dew spreads for most of the sub except the extreme southern areas, which basically precludes any real fun severe wx. However, CAPE could be a little undermodeled since we have such a seasonally extreme EML being transported out of the SW. And we have a decently favorable 700mb setup to deliver the EML to our region, although it's not perfect. Note ridging to the south, which is crucial for getting the goods up to the northeast. Would like to have that trough more towards the west coast than Texas, and the Pacific High more towards Alaska.

Average 700mb setup to get an EML to the northeast (keep in mind this includes all the way up to New England, so the average is a little north of what we need):



La Plata 700mb setup:



Wednesday 21z 700mb per the 18z GFS:

 

[eep]

I think pretty much all Twitter forecasts should be taken with a heavy grain of salt, especially if it’s from chasers.

To add to this: yeah the forecasted environment is nasty, but it's also important to note that all of the soundings could become moot the moment any storm wants to go upscale.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I don't think HRRR or NAM soundings should ever be taken TOO seriously because they always seem to be overblown. The RAP seems to have the best handle on things there, but it isn't as juicy for hype-casting so Twitter forecasters never use it.

That being said, I seriously can't get over these Illinois RAP soundings. For a model that is normally so conservative to be pushing out parameters like this is mind-blowing.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

To add to this: yeah the forecasted environment is nasty, but it's also important to note that all of the soundings could become moot the moment any storm wants to go upscale.

Wouldn't the bigger risk be storms dying out before they reach maturity because of the warm nose and cap? It seems like the HRRR has been over convecting like crazy the last 2 or 3 big set ups.