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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

Surprisingly few changes to the tornado risk, but here's a few I notice:
- More CIG1 connecting Illinois and Texas.
- Some 5% and 2% hatched in northern Ohio, almost all the way to Columbus. In the previous map Ohio only had a small area of 2% hatched.
 

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lurker said:
Surprisingly few changes to the tornado risk, but here's a few I notice:
- More CIG1 connecting Illinois and Texas.
- Some 5% and 2% hatched in northern Ohio, almost all the way to Columbus. In the previous map Ohio only had a small area of 2% hatched.
Click to expand...
Nice, I actually was gonna post a picture of this, I saved and cropped it etc, but forgot. Thanks
 
Messy but possible upgrades to come.



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC...

..SUMMARY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY VICINITY.

..ARKLATEX TO OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC

A MESSY SCENARIO IS EVIDENT HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TEXAS
NORTHEAST INTO PA/MD/VA. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST, WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A BROAD
SWATH OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THESE
AREAS, WITH A PARTICULARLY STRONG JET MAX ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
(80-100 KT AT 500 MB). AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED
FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO CENTRAL OK WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
TX. A SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING THE TX DRYLINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES, A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN
PLACE, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S F AS FAR NORTH AS PA. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S F ARE POSSIBLE AND AT
LEAST SOME STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT, INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE, BUT MLCAPE UP TO 500-1000 J/KG
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO VA. ONE OF THE MAIN
CONCERNS/POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDING HIGHER PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY VICINITY IS POSSIBLE ONGOING CONVECTION
DURING THE MORNING, AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE
BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME LIMITING LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND
GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS, INTENSE DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS A
BROAD AREA AND AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE WAS CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OH/NORTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST PA AND WESTERN/NORTHERN WV. IF
ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS, DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY, A LINE
OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO FURTHER NORTH, BUT
STILL MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST, BUT LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG THE SURGING
COLD FRONT WILL POSE AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISCRETE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. IF THIS OCCURS, SOME INCREASED RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MERGE WITH THE LINE. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. DEPENDING ON FORECAST TRENDS,
OUTLOOK UPGRADES COULD BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

..LEITMAN.. 03/10/2026

 

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For the people who have just woken up, CAMs have been a bit finicky regarding the time of storm initiation in the OWS, if initiation happens at all.

Every one of them show the same thing however, a south-to-north orientated bowing band of precip that shows up at around 3-4pm. This feature is crucial on weather OWS convection develops or not.

The reason why this banding forms can be traced back to south western Missouri. Here, a region of strong isentropic lift
develops (at around 9am) and propagates northeastward out ahead of the main forcing mechanism responsible for the later development of dryline/coldfront convenction.
1773132023205.gif1773132477531.jpeg

This isentropic lift and its propagation can be seen on these VWPs below.
hrrr sounding1773133234634.png1773133488143.png
It’s just under the inversion layer and depicted by the omega bars to the left. This inversion layer is overblown on the NAM models, but still respectively stout on all other CAMs.

Given the magnitude of surface heating, low to mid 80s, lllr, 7-8c/km, moisture content, 60-mid 60s dew, and lack of fog/low level cloud deck; this lifting front shouldn’t have too much difficulty in initiating convection in the OWS.

Main questions are still the timing of initiation, distribution of initiation (north or south of warm front), or will initiation even happen at all, which heavily depends on magnitude of the inversion layer. Even with or without OWS convection, once the main forcing mechanism arrives, the dryline will unzip and upscale growth capable of producing tornadoes (some strong) and most certainly damaging winds will be the main threat.
 
jiharris0220 said:
For the people who have just woken up, CAMs have been a bit finicky regarding the time of storm initiation in the OWS, if initiation happens at all.

Every one of them show the same thing however, a south-to-north orientated bowing band of precip that shows up at around 3-4pm. This feature is crucial on weather OWS convection develops or not.

The reason why this banding forms can be traced back to south western Missouri. Here, a region of strong isentropic lift
develops (at around 9am) and propagates northeastward out ahead of the main forcing mechanism responsible for the later development of dryline/coldfront convenction.
View attachment 51288View attachment 51289

This isentropic lift and its propagation can be seen on these VWPs below.
View attachment 51290View attachment 51295View attachment 51296
It’s just under the inversion layer and depicted by the omega bars to the left. This inversion layer is overblown on the NAM models, but still respectively stout on all other CAMs.

Given the magnitude of surface heating, low to mid 80s, lllr, 7-8c/km, moisture content, 60-mid 60s dew, and lack of fog/low level cloud deck; this lifting front shouldn’t have too much difficulty in initiating convection in the OWS.

Main questions are still the timing of initiation, distribution of initiation (north or south of warm front), or will initiation even happen at all, which heavily depends on magnitude of the inversion layer. Even with or without OWS convection, once the main forcing mechanism arrives, the dryline will unzip and upscale growth capable of producing tornadoes (some strong) and most certainly damaging winds will be the main threat.
Click to expand...

Recent HRRR runs have the OWS convection firing early and quite far to the south and east. This would be out of reach for me, and also somewhat removed from the most volatile parameter space which has been consistently shown as pooling right along the warm front just south and east of the Quad Cities area (although parameters there would still certainly support supercells capable of all hazards).
 
A strange dream woke me up, so decided to get a check of the weather.
From what a met on the local Fox affiliate said, storms won't really fire until the evening - thanks to the Cap™️ - and hail/damaging winds are greater threat.

What I am iffy about is the 'brief spinup' possible. Maybe it is the models or something else on their end, but they said there's not much for rotation.

Still going to keep my eye out throughout the day
 
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BMX is doing a survey today. Jason Simpson said on FB last night he did think it was a small tornado.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
640 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
…Preliminary Storm Survey Scheduled for today for Winston, Tuscaloosa, and Jefferson Counties…
The National Weather Service office in Birmingham AL will conduct a storm survey today for Winston, Tuscaloosa, and Jefferson Counties. The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area Monday, March 9.
A final assessment including results of the survey are expected to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information Statement by this evening.
 
speedbump305 said:
Could be an active day ahead of us. Wonder if we’ll see an upgrade to a moderate risk.
Click to expand...
I'd say its certainly a solid possibility, especially if this scenario from the 12z HRRR holds:

CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2026031012-HRRR-FLT1-prec-radar-5-15-100.gif
Not only does it fire more discrete/semi-discrete convection in IL/IN, it fires KS/MO, which is also in a volitile environment.
 
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