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Severe Weather 2026

Grand Poo Bah said:
TNI values are currently at almost +3. You can even see the extreme temperature gradient across the equatorial pacific. Hard to imagine this won't lead to significant severe weather in the coming weeks/months.

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GFS has been moderately consistent with a shortwave or three moving through the Midwest around the 8/7-11 timeframe; exact timing, placement and ceiling varies from run to run as to be expected at this range.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
GFS has been moderately consistent with a shortwave or three moving through the Midwest around the 8/7-11 timeframe; exact timing, placement and ceiling varies from run to run as to be expected at this range.
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It also looks like a favorable pattern could set up about a month from now and severe weather will impact the Northern Plains and Midwest before shifting south towards the Tennessee valley.

THis NOAA study Found that the frequency of F3 to F5 tornadoes doubles during strongly positive TNI phases. Fun stuff.

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A abundance of dry air will cause mini supercells tomorrow acros E MO. With storm relative wind around 30 kts, you would be thinking a few solid nudgers. However, these "mini" cases don't require nudgers. Nudgers may blow up a storm in this instance since they're smallish in nature, and plus dry air wouldn't allow many storms to interact. Should morning convection of sorts leave a remnant boundary around for vorticity to sprinkle onto, this would be your best chance at seeing some of these mini spinning supercells tomorrow drop a tornado. Vorticity and 3CAPE is the play tomorrow.
 
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