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Severe Weather 2026

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I mean, the Euro is a fantastic model but you can't just solely run off one particular model. Ensembles aren't particularly strong on this one yet, and even with the low deepening subtly, the low level jet is still the same
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Let me wishcast Leprechaun ;P summertime in Alabama gets very lonely on the ole radar scope lol
 
That is so odd for August to have a slightly synoptically driven late night Dixie setup. I'm awaiting the full 18z suite before any thoughts on it, but I'm still not exactly convinced just yet.

As for the threat I mentioned in Kansas earlier, it seems models are having trouble modeling some sort of slightly stronger shortwave that could be a extraordinarily diffuse MCV of sorts that rides along the belt of flow. I'm watching but the 06z HRRR might'vr been a fluke with that potential.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
That is so odd for August to have a slightly synoptically driven late night Dixie setup. I'm awaiting the full 18z suite before any thoughts on it, but I'm still not exactly convinced just yet.

As for the threat I mentioned in Kansas earlier, it seems models are having trouble modeling some sort of slightly stronger shortwave that could be an extraordinarily diffuse MCV of sorts that rides along the belt of flow. I'm watching but the 06z HRRR might'vr been a fluke with that potential.
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I’m in complete agreement i feel like im in the twilight zone seeing Alabama lit up with supercells like is mid spring here lol.
 
More MCS damaging wind threat than tornado risk. For some reason, MEG is thinking instability will be lacking which is honestly quite laughable given it's still Summer and there's definitely NOT a lack of instability.
 
JPWX said:
More MCS damaging wind threat than tornado risk. For some reason, MEG is thinking instability will be lacking which is honestly quite laughable given it's still Summer and there's definitely NOT a lack of instability.
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Thought the same thing man. Do they know it’s summer time lol
 
@Kds86z

You have any good twitter posts you’ve seen for Saturday? I don’t have twitter so i haven’t been able to look but I know you come across some wx posters.

I pulled up 12km nam radar up to show the reflectivity
IMG_0034.pngIMG_0035.png
 
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What a weird setup for this weekend. Agree with JP on likely a largely wind-driven risk, but could definitely see some tornadoes, especially in any belts of enhanced kinematics that form during the evening. Still plenty of time for things to change, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on, particularly given the time of year.
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