Severe Weather 2026

[UncleJuJu98]

Throwing this out there. Keep a eye on Saturday and Sunday in the southeast for severe weather

 

[Seasons of weather]

Currently got the line in central wisconsin going straight south toward Chicagoland. May not be out of the woods just yet

 

[DanLarsen34]

This you don’t see everyday. PDS severe thunderstorm warning for NW Indiana with winds over 100 MPH.

 

[Kds86z]

A

Thread 'Severe Risk/Excessive Heat 7/27-7/28/2026'

Today at 12:22 PM

I decided to go ahead and make a thread to discuss the severe threat and excessive heat over the Central U.S. over the next couple of days.

• akt1985
• Replies: 21
• Forum: General Weather Discussion

• 

I guess continue discussing here

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

It seems like most of the surprise tornadoes have been in WI/MI this year. Then there was the surprise June 21st outbreak that happened in Illinois and Indiana. Here's a map of all the suspended and reduced balloon launches. I think they line up pretty well with where these surprise storms have occurred. Any low pressure systems ejecting over the rockies into the northern plains have essentially been entering a blind area. It's possible that a shortwave trough could go completely undetected if timed right. These launches were likely selected for cuts because lower populations around those offices, without any consideration of the downstream effects to forecasting in populated areas.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

It seems like most of the surprise tornadoes have been in WI/MI this year. Then there was the surprise June 11th outbreak that happened in Illinois and Indiana. Here's a map of all the suspended and reduced balloon launches. I think they line up pretty well with where these surprise storms have occurred. Any low pressure systems ejecting over the rockies into the northern plains have essentially been entering a blind area. It's possible that a shortwave trough could go completely undetected if timed right. These launches were likely selected for cuts because lower populations around those offices, without any consideration of the downstream effects to forecasting in populated areas.

View attachment 54320

June 11th was in no way a surprise outbreak lmao. It was just HOW those tornadoes happened. People expected your main front to do it but in the end, the confluence bands carried significantly.

Yes, the cuts have significantly made this harder but models are also absolutely dungus this time of year. Combine that with already poor model spread and less balloon launches. Wowza. Models play a very significant part in this too

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

June 11th was in no way a surprise outbreak lmao. It was just HOW those tornadoes happened. People expected your main front to do it but in the end, the confluence bands carried significantly.

Yes, the cuts have significantly made this harder but models are also absolutely dungus this time of year. Combine that with already poor model spread and less balloon launches. Wowza. Models play a very significant part in this too

I might've been thinking of the June 21st outbreak. The one where dozens of tornadoes happened on a slight risk day. Corrected my comment.

In terms of modeling, cutting so many launches around the rocky mountains creates major issues for tracking trough ejections and low pressure systems. It seems all of our surprise systems (and biggest busts) are occurring downstream of this huge blind spot. Instead of being dispersed around the country, these cuts are grouped in one huge region, and it's affecting forecasting in the upper midwest and great lakes.