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Severe Weather 2026


20 min from me
 
TNI values are currently at almost +3. You can even see the extreme temperature gradient across the equatorial pacific. Hard to imagine this won't lead to significant severe weather in the coming weeks/months.

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TNI values are currently at almost +3. You can even see the extreme temperature gradient across the equatorial pacific. Hard to imagine this won't lead to significant severe weather in the coming weeks/months.

View attachment 54398

GFS has been moderately consistent with a shortwave or three moving through the Midwest around the 8/7-11 timeframe; exact timing, placement and ceiling varies from run to run as to be expected at this range.
 
GFS has been moderately consistent with a shortwave or three moving through the Midwest around the 8/7-11 timeframe; exact timing, placement and ceiling varies from run to run as to be expected at this range.
It also looks like a favorable pattern could set up about a month from now and severe weather will impact the Northern Plains and Midwest before shifting south towards the Tennessee valley.

THis NOAA study Found that the frequency of F3 to F5 tornadoes doubles during strongly positive TNI phases. Fun stuff.

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