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Current Tropical Systems Melissa
Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
joshoctober16
Member
there is suddenly so much tornado warnings right now , one was on the ground with a CC drop , i think at this point there were 4-5 tornado warnings , note this is all north side of new orleans
also just when typing this a second tornado is reported on the ground.
also note this is today's risk
also just when typing this a second tornado is reported on the ground.
also note this is today's risk
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
Imma just leave this here:
First June F5 since 1984, first F5 in North Dakota since 1957, and first June EF5 using the new EF scale. See folks, the NWS can still give a EF5 rating
joshoctober16
Member
what the hell is going on here?!
and did any other tornadoes since 2007 lift train cars at a distance of 145 meters?
how far did tuscaloosa threw its train cars?
and did any other tornadoes since 2007 lift train cars at a distance of 145 meters?
how far did tuscaloosa threw its train cars?
Lake Martin EF4
Member
The EF5 drought just ended.
And Tuscaloosa threw its cars something like 120 meters I think. Probably should be given its own reanalysis now that train car tossing at that distance is a confirmed EF5 indicator.
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[insert comment revelling in the fact that the EF5 drought just ended]
In all seriousness, not much to add that hasn't already been said. Perhaps I'm a bit surprised that the first (official) EF5 since Moore has been assigned its rating based on contextual evidence... before today, there hadn't been a contextual EF5 since Rainsville and El Reno back in 2011. But perhaps I shouldn't be surprised considering current application of the EF scale relies on impossibly high construction standards for any permanent structure to receive such a rating, and a tornado happening in a WFO willing to study non-traditional DI's was perhaps the only way the drought would end. And now that said drought has been broken, hopefully absurdly conservative damage surveys will become less common. Hopefully...
Props to NWS Grand Forks and everyone who assisted them with their survey.
In all seriousness, not much to add that hasn't already been said. Perhaps I'm a bit surprised that the first (official) EF5 since Moore has been assigned its rating based on contextual evidence... before today, there hadn't been a contextual EF5 since Rainsville and El Reno back in 2011. But perhaps I shouldn't be surprised considering current application of the EF scale relies on impossibly high construction standards for any permanent structure to receive such a rating, and a tornado happening in a WFO willing to study non-traditional DI's was perhaps the only way the drought would end. And now that said drought has been broken, hopefully absurdly conservative damage surveys will become less common. Hopefully...
Props to NWS Grand Forks and everyone who assisted them with their survey.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
i think people were talking about the tornado outbreak in oklahoma in 2011 with one of the tornadoes throwing an oil rig or train or something from within a discord server i hangout in
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Absolutely. And I think that Tuscaloosa, despite it throwing train cars a shorter distance, was inflicted upon a far heavier car (~134000 lb vs 72000 lb in Enderlin). This absolutely 10000% should give Tuscaloosa an EF5 rating, I think it’s a little dumb not to at this point. Especially when considering the fact that Tuscaloosa was already likely stronger than Philadelphia/Rainsville from that day at peak intensity.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Agreed with Philadelphia (still a legit EF5 intensity tornado tho), but not Rainsville. A lot of people forget just how extreme Rainsville truly was.
Kds86z
Member
- Moderator
- #6,933
Are things about to start waking up?
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging will persist over the Plains on Day 4/Fri. By Day 5 or
6/Sat or Sun, most medium-range guidance depicts an upper shortwave
trough ejecting from a larger-scale western U.S. trough across the
northern Plains. Surface high pressure over the eastern half of the
U.S. prior to this will limit boundary layer moisture and thus,
severe storm potential. However, by the end of the period, spread in
forecast guidance increases. The GFS shows a much more progressive
pattern, bringing an upper trough and cold front across much of the
Plains early next week, with little Gulf return flow to support
severe potential ahead of the front. The ECMWF is slower with the
eastward progression of the western U.S. trough, allowing for more
southerly return flow and increasing moisture across the Plains. If
this occurs, some severe potential could increase early next week.
However, given large uncertainty, predictability is too low.
Regardless, a pattern change toward early next week appears evident
for the Plains.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging will persist over the Plains on Day 4/Fri. By Day 5 or
6/Sat or Sun, most medium-range guidance depicts an upper shortwave
trough ejecting from a larger-scale western U.S. trough across the
northern Plains. Surface high pressure over the eastern half of the
U.S. prior to this will limit boundary layer moisture and thus,
severe storm potential. However, by the end of the period, spread in
forecast guidance increases. The GFS shows a much more progressive
pattern, bringing an upper trough and cold front across much of the
Plains early next week, with little Gulf return flow to support
severe potential ahead of the front. The ECMWF is slower with the
eastward progression of the western U.S. trough, allowing for more
southerly return flow and increasing moisture across the Plains. If
this occurs, some severe potential could increase early next week.
However, given large uncertainty, predictability is too low.
Regardless, a pattern change toward early next week appears evident
for the Plains.
Certainly looks the part on the Euro and the GFS. Euro looks particularly intense with some of the trough ejections coming up over the next week or so.
Tanner
Member
Some people smell rotting vegetation and pumpkin spice lattes...we smell gulf moisture and amplified troughs.
If so, then kudos to the Canadian Ensemble for seeing it first.
There's just enough helicity going on for these showers to maintain some updrafts in the Sand Mountain region this evening. Nothing that'll translate to the ground, but always fascinated by these transient little convective interactions.
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For those who may have missed these, a couple clips of the Enderlin tornado:
GFS supercell composite is getting pretty spicy for October 14/15 and 17/18. Here's a nice little cherry picked sounding from Southern Kansas to make things interesting. 0-1km SRH and 1-3km SRH and eff shear are looking very high for the 14/15 system as well. 
Certainly a system worth watching - and additionally, the 12z GFS is absolutely insane for the troughs beyond that. Definitely won’t happen like it’s saying it will atm, but it certainly looks like we’re entering into an active period here.