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Severe Weather 2025

KevinH said:
A little while ago on this thread (and the 3/30 thread), when I said don’t be surprised when the earth starts doing things it has never done before, etc., THIS is what I was talking about.

Anomalies are going to become more common.
Click to expand...
Just wanted to point out that I still stand by this :)
Do not be surprised when the earth starts to do things it has never done before (it’s already started doing that). Myths will be disproven records will be broken, and many people will be caught off guard by what they thought was impossible stats to happen.
 
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so there is this strange thing that sometimes happens that i like to call a stratocumulus mesocyclone.
image.png
that look like this.
they clearly come out of stratocumulus cloud and have a wall cloud like thing that clearly spins.

i bring this up because one might of happened in New Brunswick Canada

i check the sounding of that spot and notice this in 6 hours

1759075497449.png
So... has a SARS 100% TOR ever shown up on a sounding before?

here is how it looks from satellite (today)

1759075599964.png , possible stratocumulus meso area , hours ago.

compared to a known stratocumulus meso thingy (satellite)
1759075700784.png
Possible stratocumulus meso at ground level
1759075743431.png
 
joshoctober16 said:
so there is this strange thing that sometimes happens that i like to call a stratocumulus mesocyclone.
View attachment 46795
that look like this.
they clearly come out of stratocumulus cloud and have a wall cloud like thing that clearly spins.

i bring this up because one might of happened in New Brunswick Canada

i check the sounding of that spot and notice this in 6 hours

View attachment 46791
So... has a SARS 100% TOR ever shown up on a sounding before?

here is how it looks from satellite (today)

View attachment 46792 , possible stratocumulus meso area , hours ago.

compared to a known stratocumulus meso thingy (satellite)
View attachment 46793
Possible stratocumulus meso at ground level
View attachment 46794
Click to expand...
1759088975906.png
there is a bow echo with some weak areas of rotation north east of the 100% tornado sars area.
 
So was just looking at the 12z Canadian Ensemble for tropical mischief on the Gulf Coast next month and this caught my eye. Just something to watch, but we might have to monitor around mid October for a fairly widespread severe weather threat.
 

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  • cmc-ensemble-all-avg-central-mslp_ens_min-0443200.png 12z.png
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  • cmc-ensemble-all-avg-central-mslp_ens_min-0464800.png 12z 2.png
    cmc-ensemble-all-avg-central-mslp_ens_min-0464800.png 12z 2.png
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Ha, of course that's when my wife and I will be in the Southwest for 10 days (we fly out to Albuquerque the 11th). One model at 360 hours, though; I'm not too worried at this point. If the seasons would actually behave themselves, this tends to be a favored time of year for tornadic storms in AZ/western-central NM, most notably this event.
 
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