Severe Weather 2025

[KakashiHatake2000]

I just would like to know what everybody’s opinion on this with forecasting 9-10 days to three weeks in advance with the new nssl testing product tool

 

[Kds86z]

? I just would like to know what everybody’s opinion on this with forecasting 9-10 days to three weeks in advance with the new nssl testing product tool

I’m not familiar @KakashiHatake2000 with it but I hope someone has some insight.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

I’m not familiar @KakashiHatake2000

Oh sorry I had to make a change in the link Facebook likes to show who shared the Facebook link so I did that

 

[Kds86z]

Oh sorry I had to make a change in the link Facebook likes to show who shared the Facebook link so I did that

Oh ok cool.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Oh ok cool.

Yeah

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Clancy]

Take it back, take it back

 

[Ozonelayer]

You have got to be kidding me.

 

[warneagle]

 

[David in SW Blount]

Wow, 90°F is sizzlin' for North Alabama in October (yeah, that 100°F stuff a few years ago notwithstanding), much less in Minnesota!

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[JPWX]

The SPC is beginning to hint at severe weather uptick potential near or beyond Day 8 (Friday/Saturday) of next week. This is getting within the timeframe that the 12z Canadian Ensemble had a severe weather threat on the September 29th run.

Further west, the ECMWF suite of guidance suggests an upper
shortwave trough may eject across the central Rockies into the
central Plains around Day 6 or 7/Wed or Thu, with some southerly
return flow bringing Gulf moisture northward ahead of this feature.
However, the GFS suite of guidance is delayed with this feature
until near/after Day 8/Fri. Thunderstorm could increase across parts
of the Plains late in the forecast period, but uncertainty/model
spread is quite large.

 

[MichelleH]

The SPC is beginning to hint at severe weather uptick potential near or beyond Day 8 (Friday/Saturday) of next week. This is getting within the timeframe that the 12z Canadian Ensemble had a severe weather threat on the September 29th run.

Further west, the ECMWF suite of guidance suggests an upper
shortwave trough may eject across the central Rockies into the
central Plains around Day 6 or 7/Wed or Thu, with some southerly
return flow bringing Gulf moisture northward ahead of this feature.
However, the GFS suite of guidance is delayed with this feature
until near/after Day 8/Fri. Thunderstorm could increase across parts
of the Plains late in the forecast period, but uncertainty/model
spread is quite large.

I was wondering out loud earlier if we had storms coming up. Looks like a strong cold front coming through next weekend based on estimated temps.

 

[JPWX]

I was wondering out loud earlier if we had storms coming up. Looks like a strong cold front coming through next weekend based on estimated temps.

Not seeing a big temperature difference next weekend on current 10-day for me, but I suspect that will change. It's definitely that time of year where you start looking for a 20 degree or greater temp difference for severe storms.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[slenker]

Seems like there's a bit of a signal for a uptick in severe weather about 1.5 to two weeks out from here, if I'm interpreting the 12z Euro and GFS ensembles correctly, especially the Euro. Operational 12z Euro also has a big longwave trough with ample moisture out ahead about 250 hours out (definitely won't happen as its being panned out now, but it's still something). Admittedly, though, I don't know how trustworthy this is as far as severe weather signals go, especially in October.

 

[TH2002]

As Typhoon Bualoi made landfall in Vietnam on September 29, its outer bands spawned at least five tornadoes.

The first tornado struck Hoằng Phú in the Thanh Hóa province just after 4AM. Large masonry buildings were demolished, homes had their roofs torn off (some lost walls as well) and a car was thrown about 100 meters (328 feet). Two people were injured and there was one indirect fatality.

The second tornado was unfortunately very deadly. It killed 9 and injured 24 across six villages, mainly in the Yên Khánh district of the Ninh Bình province. Sturdy masonry homes were destroyed, with roofs gone and several walls down. A few were completely leveled.

 

[TH2002]

(continued...)

A third tornado killed 2 and injured 9 as it tracked through Thái Thuỷ in the Thái Bình province.

A fourth tornado was documented in Đầm Hà, Quảng Ninh. 9 people were injured by this multiple vortex tornado.

A fifth tornado struck Vĩnh Bảo in the city of Hải Phòng (incidentally, Haiphong was hit by a deadly tornado in 2011). Street lamps were knocked over, roofs were damaged with a few being torn completely off, and vehicles were flipped. Three people were injured.