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Severe Weather 2024

Instability seems to be ticking up a bit, and over a larger area of MS/AL on recent GFS runs with the Friday system, especially tonight's 00Z. For some reason, hodographs/SRH are consistently not as impressive on forecast soundings as with the early week system, despite the 500mb trough and surface low being just as if not more intense. Still ample SRH for a tornado threat, though. This is near Birmingham:

gfs_2024010800_117_33.5--86.75.png
 
In other news, watch for a potential heavy rain/severe weather risk across the Deep South (Dixie Alley) around the 24/25th of the month. Just a gut feeling plus this map. I admit. I enjoy forecasting severe weather/heavy rain threats more than snow threats. Much easier. LOL!
 

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I knew you would be the first to like this @KevinH! LOL!
 
JPWX said:
In other news, watch for a potential heavy rain/severe weather risk across the Deep South (Dixie Alley) around the 24/25th of the month. Just a gut feeling plus this map. I admit. I enjoy forecasting severe weather/heavy rain threats more than snow threats. Much easier. LOL!
Click to expand...
Someone: I like calm weather
Dixie: Oh, I'm sorry, did you say you want some Severe Weather?
Someone: NO, I SAID-
Dixie: Okay. Here's some Severe Weather.
Someone: "Oh sh-"
 
TH2002 said:
Someone: I like calm weather
Dixie: Oh, I'm sorry, did you say you want some Severe Weather?
Someone: NO, I SAID-
Dixie: Okay. Here's some Severe Weather.
Someone: "Oh sh-"
Click to expand...
EXACTLY!!!!!
 
JPWX said:
In other news, watch for a potential heavy rain/severe weather risk across the Deep South (Dixie Alley) around the 24/25th of the month. Just a gut feeling plus this map. I admit. I enjoy forecasting severe weather/heavy rain threats more than snow threats. Much easier. LOL!
Click to expand...

Hopefully we are able to get our shelter by then! I’m not sure how long it takes once they start.

I’ll take snow anyday, but I’m not a fan of the ice chances. At least with severe weather, it’s here and there and not everywhere like the sleet/ice. I’m just glad it seems like the power lines held up well in this so far!
 
SPC Day 4-8 Discussion:
"The beginning of the period will see an upper trough over the
eastern states and an upper ridge over the West. The upper ridge
will weaken as it slides east over the Plains on Day 5/Sat, with a
lower-amplitude pattern emerging east of the Rockies through Day
6/Sun. During the latter half of the period, an upper trough is
forecast to develop over the western U.S. Strong surface high
pressure over the Plains on Day 4/Fri will shift east through the
period, and another frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico will
result in a generally dry/stable airmass for much of the Day 4-8
period. As the western upper trough develops late in the period,
surface lee troughing will promote southerly low-level flow over the
southern Plains and some Gulf moisture return is expected. As this
occurs, thunderstorm potential may increase across parts of the
southern Plains around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue. Modest deep-layer flow over
the region, and the upper trough remaining well west, will likely
limit severe potential until perhaps just beyond Day 8/Tue."
 
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