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Severe Weather 2024

GFS continues uptrending instability and moisture, and SPC seems to think that will continue based on their mid range disco.

In the wake of this system, minimal severe potential is evident
across the CONUS for Day 6/Sunday. Medium-range deterministic and
ensemble guidance show remarkably good agreement that another upper
trough will both strengthen and amplify as it ejects across the
southern Plains and Southeast early next week. Impressive wind
fields at low/mid levels should easily support severe thunderstorms
wherever sufficient low-level moisture can advance inland of a
deepening surface low. There is still some uncertainty with both how
quickly rich low-level moisture will be able to return northward
from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of TX and the lower MS Valley,
and how far north it will reach. Regardless, it appears probable
that enough boundary-layer instability will be present/develop on
Day 7/Monday and Monday night over parts of coastal/east TX into LA,
southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle to justify introducing
a 15% severe area. Adjustments to this area will likely be needed in
the coming days as confidence increases in the northward extent of
appreciable low-level moisture. But, given the very strong forecast
shear, supercells and line segments capable of producing both
tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible. This severe threat may
continue farther east into Day 8/Tuesday from parts of FL/GA into
the Carolinas, but too much uncertainty regarding destabilization
currently exists to include a severe delineation across this region.
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FFX watching this system closely.

The next system will be right at the very end of the long term,
and looks to have potential to be the most potent. There is a lot
of agreement among models in seeing a very potent wave dig into
the 4 corners region into Monday that then ejects into the
southeast on Tuesday. This looks to be a very dynamic system and
bears watching for severe potential. It also will likely bring
another soaking rain the CWA, though it is too far out to discuss
amounts or any flooding potential.
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Clancy said:
GFS insisting it's April in SW AL for this event.
View attachment 22811
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Well the moisture in the gulf around this time, you would think it is. This is climatologically remarkable the amount of rich moisture in the gulf.

This synoptic look is climatologically remarkable and the moisture is climatologically remarkable. A bad duo. Let's hope this low pressure does push with a little more northwesterly track.
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
I know this isn't a direct forecast preclude to outbreaks but whenever I see this just on mesoscale models alone. I know a outbreak of supercells is possible and usually a tornado event is associated. This is the highest I have ever seen in my time of looking of about 10 years personally of seeing this high of values in January for Alabama. I mean this is ridiculous.

Whenever I see these bright pinks coming in, that's very bad news. We are still a ways out, but WOW. I'm going to save these in a bookmark like the march 3rd event.

View attachment 22805
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Wait… March 3, 2023 or 2019?
 
In addition to bouts of severe weather, flooding could be a concern over the next week or so.
 
Way out there, but GFS keeps signalling intermittently about a system around the middle of the month that may bear watching.
 
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