Severe Weather 2024

[Taylor Campbell]

Way out there, but GFS keeps signalling intermittently about a system around the middle of the month that may bear watching.

Yeah, this is on all the models and has been closing in the hours.

 

[KevinH]

Way out there, but GFS keeps signalling intermittently about a system around the middle of the month that may bear watching.

You mean AFTER the 1/9 system?

 

[Clancy]

You mean AFTER the 1/9 system?

That's correct, around 1/15 or so for the past several runs.

 

[KevinH]

That's correct, around 1/15 or so for the past several runs.

Ok… smh

I’ll have to see if I can find out for which areas

 

[KevinH]

That's correct, around 1/15 or so for the past several runs.

If I looked at the right model product, then it looks like N MS, N AL, and W TN-ish are at play….

*IF* lol

 

[Clancy]

If I looked at the right model product, then it looks like N MS, N AL, and W TN-ish are at play….

*IF* lol

There's still a lot of model variability regarding placement and other specifics, so areas of concern will likely take some time to become more apparent.

 

[KevinH]

There's still a lot of model variability regarding placement and other specifics, so areas of concern will likely take some time to become more apparent.

Right! Just wanted to get a general idea of where they were saying (at least for now lol)

 

[JPWX]

In other news, the latest January CANSIPS run shows La Nina coming on by March transitioning/intensifying to a central Pacific Modoki La Nina by peak hurricane season.

 

[Clancy]

CIPS long-range with a fairly strong signal for severe potential mid-month. 1+ and 5+ probs, respectively.

 

[KevinH]

CIPS long-range with a fairly strong signal for severe potential mid-month. 1+ and 5+ probs, respectively.
View attachment 22856View attachment 22857

Oh look… MS and AL…

Shocker. lol

 

[Clancy]

BMX is hosting a community event in Selma next Saturday, January 13th, from 10 am to noon.

Following the tornado of January 12, 2023, the National Weather Service invites the community of Selma to a one-year anniversary event. Various agencies will be in attendance with activities and preparedness items for free. Tell your story, learn, prepare, and enjoy some refreshments. ArtsRevive will unveil a mosaic dedicated to those impacted by the tornado. This event will take place on Saturday, January 13th from 10 am to noon at ArtsRevive located at 3 Church Street in Selma, Alabama. The event is free to attend.

 

[Clancy]

00Z GFS continues to indicate a gnarly looking trough moving across the US late next week.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

00Z GFS continues to indicate a gnarly looking trough moving across the US late next week.

The GFS is not alone with all other guidance today showing another very amplified trough and powerfully bombing cyclone across the Delta/ Midwest region late next week/ weekend.

 

[Clancy]

The GFS is not alone with all other guidance today showing another very amplified trough and powerfully bombing cyclone across the Delta region late next week and weekend.

Yeah, noticed the Euro was generally on board. Don't like the presentation at all.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Deja vu after this Tuesday system with a identically strong system again swinging through... Sigh..

 

[CheeselandSkies]

*If* its close to as strong as depicted on tonight's 0Z GFS, the late next week low should be able to pull up slightly richer moisture (and a wider warm sector) compared to the early week one.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

GFS shows a 978-980mb low for our area with a better warm sector....

Still isn't that broad but bears watching lol.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

this next threat should have a broader warm sector since models not showing lp occludes pinching it off.

 

[Clancy]

CIPS and CSU probs with fairly strong signals for next week's system.

 

[JBishopwx]