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Severe Weather 2023

notsoencrypted

notsoencrypted

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My new weather radio arrived this afternoon (excellent timing)! Even though tomorrow's threats should stay to my south, I'm taking the opportunity to clean out the cat carriers and have them ready if they're needed. I feel like I'm probably over-preparing, but between tomorrow and the 4th and it only being April, I feel like this could be a long severe season, so putting the nervous energy to work with prep is a good option, yeah?
 
A

atrainguy

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North central Texas is in a slight risk tomorrow for large hail and tornadoes. Dallas/Fort Worth are of course right in the middle of it.

 
OHWX97

OHWX97

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Don't sleep on Texas today.
day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTH
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across central to
northeast Texas between 2 to 11 PM CDT. Several tornadoes are
possible, a couple of which may be strong, in addition to large hail
and damaging winds.

...Central TX to the Ark-La-Miss...
Rich western Gulf moisture characterized by upper 60s to low 70s
surface dew points across south TX will advect northward and mix
beneath an initially pronounced elevated mixed layer. The leading
edge of the moisture return will result in a substantial moisture
gradient/effective warm front near the Red River along the TX/OK
border southeastward through central LA by late afternoon, and east
of the dryline mixing into the Big Country and the Edwards Plateau.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over NM will provide favorably
timed ascent with respect to peak diurnal heating. This will aid in
scattered thunderstorms forming towards mid-afternoon near the
intersection of the dryline and Gulf moisture plume. Additional
storms will likely form downstream across parts of northeast TX
within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime. The dampening
nature of the trough will yield pronounced mid-level warming on the
backside of it, rendering a progressive west to east cutoff of deep
convection across north TX this evening.

Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and a 60 to 70-kt
jetlet attendant to the shortwave trough will yield several
supercells capable of very large hail. It appears there will be a
more favorable window for tornadoes centered on 22-02Z where 1) the
southern-most discrete supercells will impinge on the richest
low-level moisture and 2) semi-discrete supercells farther north
track along leading outflow/effective warm front, amid 30-40 kt
low-level winds. This could support a few tornadic supercells with a
threat for a couple strong tornadoes. Supercells may grow upscale
into a forward-propagating cluster/small MCS with embedded bowing
segments possible across northeast TX. Weakening mid-level lapse
rates/buoyancy with eastern extent and further dampening of the
shortwave trough will probably preclude greater coverage of the
damaging wind threat east of TX. But locally damaging winds and a
brief tornado should remain possible east overnight towards the
Ark-La-Miss.

..Grams/Goss.. 04/02/2023
Click to expand...
 
WhirlingWx

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rushdude said:
Wasn't expecting my first post to be this, but anyone have thoughts on today's risk?
I'm in DFW area and rather worried due to the metroplex being in that hatched area.
View attachment 19737View attachment 19738
Click to expand...
I think this can go in the Severe Weather 2023 thread, since it falls outside the date of the event thread you posted it in.

I assume you read the outlook text? I'm nothing more than an amateur, but I have skin in the game since I'm also in DFW. I see the tornado threat as primarily just south of wherever the warm front sets up (NWS Fort Worth thinks it'll drape across Denton/Collin counties by go-time), and also wherever storms are more discrete further south. Haven't had a chance to check much, but the HRRR has been showing some more discrete supercells forming roughly DFW south (wind fields don't seem super strong away from the warm front, however), with a cluster of them becoming more predominant possibly for northern DFW. Hail threat is no joke with those big, isolated supercells. Not sure about wind, but SPC does have a 30% risk for that too iirc

I tend to not gauge my *personal* concern for tornadoes until storms have actually formed, but since hailstorms tend to be more widespread when they occur, I'm a little worried about that.
 
Bevo

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As things have evolved, I went ahead and made a new thread especially considering the populated areas involved @rushdude @Austin Dawg

talkweather.com

Sunday, April 2nd - North Texas, South OK, West AR/LA/MS

Things have escalated quickly over the last 24 hours for north Texas, going from a marginal threat to now an enhanced risk with the DFW metro in the bullseye. Figured it would be prudent to make a thread. There is a 30% hatch now for large hail and wind within the enhanced risk as well as...
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