Severe Weather 2020

[bwalk]

Interesting article. You would really need to go back & look at this same data for the past 10 - 15 years to justify the hypothesis that warmer than average water temps in March/April result in more active tornado/hurricane seasons in that same year. You could also look for trends to this becoming more true.

Abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico could intensify the upcoming tornado and hurricane seasons
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are running more than three degrees above average, increasing the prospects for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes this spring and potentially stronger hurricane activity in the summer and fall.
link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weat...XVxRlQFEsufVhITVFiy4adlzFfB0FO7U5w8I0ypmgGUCc

 

[bwalk]

This coming week goes cold/cooler for the majority of CONUS. Wow.

 

[Kory]

The UKMET is Armageddon for Dixie. We’re starting to get a little consistency....

 

[bwalk]

The UKMET is Armageddon for Dixie. We’re starting to get a little consistency....

For what time period? This Sunday?

 

[Kory]

For what time period? This Sunday?

Correct. Easter Sunday.

 

[MichelleH]

The UKMET is Armageddon for Dixie. We’re starting to get a little consistency....

Spann has mentioned it now on Facebook.

 

[Kory]

The shear is just crazy stupid under the LLJ axis. Its roaring 60-70+ knots at 18z Sunday.

 

[jmills]

Both 12z Euro and UKMET are high end severe events across Dixie on Sunday.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

The UKMET is Armageddon for Dixie. We’re starting to get a little consistency....

There are some unreal soundings over Dixie Alley.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah, those shear values are insane. Hopefully this will trend downward because otherwise it could be nasty.

The analogue I've seen a lot on the UKMET is 12/16/18. Not encouraging to see it picking a cold season event in mid-April...

 

[Richardjacks]

Having that strong of a surface low in/near N
Mississippi with that kind of upper jet in mid April usually does not end well.

 

[warneagle]

Having that strong of a surface low in N
Mississippi with that kind of upper jet in mid April usually does not end well.

Uh...yeah...yikes.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Uh...yeah...yikes.

Jesus 982mb near metropolis Illinois with plenty dynamics ...

 

[warneagle]

Not great!

 

[Richardjacks]

The above normal ST jet isn't that crazy of an idea considering what we have seen happen in the Pacific/upstream. The shear values could approach typical fall seasonal threats, instability may decrease over time, but again, it is mid April.

 

[andyhb]

Should note, there appears to be some mesoscale influence to the surface low position/strength on the last couple of Euro runs. While there should be considerable deepening with the favorable coupled upper jet structure present here, I'd be cautious of trusting verbatims that show a small and very deep surface low.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Let's just hope this is out to lunch with the loss of a significant amount of flight data being incorporated into the models. Hopefully this trends downward as we get closer.

 

[Bevo]

Here's the thinking on the timing/locations from that Tweet based on the CIPS data.



Saturday: Texas/Oklahoma
Sunday: Dixie (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, possibly Tennessee)
Monday: Florida, Carolinas, possibly into Virginia + Maryland

 

[Kory]

And the CIPS analog is based off the GEFS, which is by far the least threatening model. European guidance is downright ugly.

 

[warneagle]

Should note, there appears to be some mesoscale influence to the surface low position/strength on the last couple of Euro runs. While there should be considerable deepening with the favorable coupled upper jet structure present here, I'd be cautious of trusting verbatims that show a small and very deep surface low.

Yeah the global models still disagree quite a bit on the placement and strength of the surface low, I'm admittedly guilty of posting the most extreme solution.