I want to watch how this all progresses another 4 to maybe 6 weeks. I want to see what kind of surface and sub-surface response we get to those enhanced trades with that standing IO wave in place since the strongest winds shown there look to be centered over the western and central ENSO regions. That will be important to the flavor of how the La Niña ends later down the road. I also want to see how the PDO continues to behave over the coming few weeks. The August PDO value was -1.25, but it's taken a short-term small step back when looking at the anomaly placement visually. I do expect that to be short-lived, however, as the large scale pattern continues to respond to the La Niña, and we had a peak of -1.75 last winter despite unfavorable ENSO. PDO seems to be pretty important to all this, and 2020's early season and spring severe showed that, especially January-April. Despite having an El Niño background state to work from, we mainly had polar jet-driven systems and ended up with a La Niña type system around Easter that produced one of the largest tornado outbreaks in U.S. history. I want to wait a few weeks to make sure the PDO is going to continue to respond to everything else going on.
But if all stays on the current course, color me very concerned. I've talked elsewhere about how the idea of the Niña ending west-based or Modoki is a big red flag because of the +TNI pattern it will set up. Overall, if everything stays on course, this is the large scale global pattern you historically look for in order for big things to happen in Dixie Alley during the late winter and spring. I have some disturbing statistics that a couple on here have privately heard IF we get a combo of this being a Niña at or below -1.0C, the PDO at or below -1.5, and a +TNI (and I think we exceed those conditions, as of now)... but I want to wait a little while longer before dropping things publicly in front of a larger audience.
Give me a couple more weeks to watch how the coastal North Pacific continues to cool. That drives the -PDO. I have a decent handle on the ENSO, but I want to make sure I nail the North Pacific. That will be critical. So far, I see no reason to change my thoughts. I just want to watch this a little longer and make sure before I start trying to sound an alarm.
This thread may be quite for now... but later look out ... looking like top analog with this Niña this winter is 98 99. Which was extremely active and violent severe wx wise that winter . The qbo looks to continue going more positive as winter rolls through .