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Severe Weather 2020 (3 Viewers)

This severe weather season will be?

  • Much Above Average

    Votes: 4 9.3%
  • Above Average

    Votes: 26 60.5%
  • Average

    Votes: 6 14.0%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 5 11.6%
  • Much Below Average

    Votes: 2 4.7%

  • Total voters
    43
  • Poll closed .
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bjdeming

Member
2021 Supporter
Messages
310
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
I just remember how smoky it was here a few years ago with fires about 90 miles away. I can't imagine it being right around you.

Thanks, Mike. We're the lucky ones (so far) and have been able to take in some Linn County evacuees at our fairgrounds after theirs filled up. Everybody who can is taking care of them, too.

But this is an ongoing event and many counties are getting hit. Updates: https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-...y-calls-situation-dangerous-live-updates.html

It's kind of funny to watch the news and see people trying to figure out where Oregon is and what is happening in it. Oh, they know the map, but only Portland and "just north of California" are on everyone's radar. There's so much more to this beautiful state than that.

Here's a little information from the troubles this morning and overnight south of us in Lane County -- that's steep terrain there, which fires love, especially in a strong wind, as well as heavily forested and dry (11% RH in Portland this morning) -- 13 miles it traveled in one night!:



And this: https://www.registerguard.com/story...-farm-fire-update-mckenzie-valley/5751055002/

This is where the heaviest loss of lives is going to come from, I think.
 

bjdeming

Member
2021 Supporter
Messages
310
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Many of those bright spots between Seattle and San Francisco are in Oregon. You can see the smoke, too. Sun's not up yet but it looks foggy outside in the lights. We're still good but NWS Portland just tweeted that many places are under evacuation orders and people should go: just a general statement. There are too many places for them to be specific.

 

andyhb

Member
Messages
225
Location
Norman, OK
Not sure where to discuss seasonal trends heading into 2021, but with a developing La Nina out in the Pacific that has recently strengthened considerably and a widespread drought over most of the southwestern US driving efficient EML advection, I'm growing rather concerned about a very active Dixie severe weather season this winter and early next spring. Most recent NMME for Nino 3.4 indicates the growing potential for a La Nina of moderate strength followed by a relatively rapid decay, which has historically been a precursor to some major severe weather events east of the Mississippi River.

1599670103071.png

1599670281838.png

1599670151355.png
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Not sure where to discuss seasonal trends heading into 2021, but with a developing La Nina out in the Pacific that has recently strengthened considerably and a widespread drought over most of the southwestern US driving efficient EML advection, I'm growing rather concerned about a very active Dixie severe weather season this winter and early next spring. Most recent NMME for Nino 3.4 indicates the growing potential for a La Nina of moderate strength followed by a relatively rapid decay, which has historically been a precursor to some major severe weather events east of the Mississippi River.

View attachment 4516

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Not to mention, a solidly -PDO per NCDC. It finally seems like the atmosphere is responding as the monthly averaged SOI index has risen into the positive range as of July. The MJO has also weakened (hanging in low amplitude IO/MC phases) and the La Niña standing wave is established. Strong trades for the foreseeable future should continue the strengthening.
 

andyhb

Member
Messages
225
Location
Norman, OK
Not to mention, a solidly -PDO per NCDC. It finally seems like the atmosphere is responding as the monthly averaged SOI index has risen into the positive range as of July. The MJO has also weakened (hanging in low amplitude IO/MC phases) and the La Niña standing wave is established. Strong trades for the foreseeable future should continue the strengthening.
Yup, clear signal in the 850 mb zonal wind Hovmollers now.

1599673256720.png
 

Fred Gossage

Member
Meteorologist
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
191
Location
Florence, AL
I want to watch how this all progresses another 4 to maybe 6 weeks. I want to see what kind of surface and sub-surface response we get to those enhanced trades with that standing IO wave in place since the strongest winds shown there look to be centered over the western and central ENSO regions. That will be important to the flavor of how the La Niña ends later down the road. I also want to see how the PDO continues to behave over the coming few weeks. The August PDO value was -1.25, but it's taken a short-term small step back when looking at the anomaly placement visually. I do expect that to be short-lived, however, as the large scale pattern continues to respond to the La Niña, and we had a peak of -1.75 last winter despite unfavorable ENSO. PDO seems to be pretty important to all this, and 2020's early season and spring severe showed that, especially January-April. Despite having an El Niño background state to work from, we mainly had polar jet-driven systems and ended up with a La Niña type system around Easter that produced one of the largest tornado outbreaks in U.S. history. I want to wait a few weeks to make sure the PDO is going to continue to respond to everything else going on.

But if all stays on the current course, color me very concerned. I've talked elsewhere about how the idea of the Niña ending west-based or Modoki is a big red flag because of the +TNI pattern it will set up. Overall, if everything stays on course, this is the large scale global pattern you historically look for in order for big things to happen in Dixie Alley during the late winter and spring. I have some disturbing statistics that a couple on here have privately heard IF we get a combo of this being a Niña at or below -1.0C, the PDO at or below -1.5, and a +TNI (and I think we exceed those conditions, as of now)... but I want to wait a little while longer before dropping things publicly in front of a larger audience.
 
Messages
460
Location
jackson tennessee
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I want to watch how this all progresses another 4 to maybe 6 weeks. I want to see what kind of surface and sub-surface response we get to those enhanced trades with that standing IO wave in place since the strongest winds shown there look to be centered over the western and central ENSO regions. That will be important to the flavor of how the La Niña ends later down the road. I also want to see how the PDO continues to behave over the coming few weeks. The August PDO value was -1.25, but it's taken a short-term small step back when looking at the anomaly placement visually. I do expect that to be short-lived, however, as the large scale pattern continues to respond to the La Niña, and we had a peak of -1.75 last winter despite unfavorable ENSO. PDO seems to be pretty important to all this, and 2020's early season and spring severe showed that, especially January-April. Despite having an El Niño background state to work from, we mainly had polar jet-driven systems and ended up with a La Niña type system around Easter that produced one of the largest tornado outbreaks in U.S. history. I want to wait a few weeks to make sure the PDO is going to continue to respond to everything else going on.

But if all stays on the current course, color me very concerned. I've talked elsewhere about how the idea of the Niña ending west-based or Modoki is a big red flag because of the +TNI pattern it will set up. Overall, if everything stays on course, this is the large scale global pattern you historically look for in order for big things to happen in Dixie Alley during the late winter and spring. I have some disturbing statistics that a couple on here have privately heard IF we get a combo of this being a Niña at or below -1.0C, the PDO at or below -1.5, and a +TNI (and I think we exceed those conditions, as of now)... but I want to wait a little while longer before dropping things publicly in front of a larger audience.
so basically what we are looking at here is potentially an active 2021 severe weather season for dixie?
 

Fred Gossage

Member
Meteorologist
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
191
Location
Florence, AL
so basically what we are looking at here is potentially an active 2021 severe weather season for dixie?

Yes, but it does zero good to just say that without any data or meaning behind it. And it may honestly be more than that, but I'd like to see how another month or so progresses with a few of the teleconnections before dropping everything publicly.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Big surge in the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific coming via the GFS, would probably help in strengthening the upwelling considerably (strengthening La Nina).
CFS has monthly readings sub -1.5C with a notable amount of the warm biased ECMWF having solidly moderate monthly readings. The momentum is definitely toward a stronger La Nina than I think many were expecting just a few months ago.
 

andyhb

Member
Messages
225
Location
Norman, OK

Officially have entered La Nina conditions per WMO. Strong trade winds per the ECMWF should continue its growth and westward extent over the coming weeks.


The multivariate ENSO index (MEI), which takes into account atmospheric response to the SST anomalies, is closely paralleling 2007 at this juncture.

Screen Shot 2020-09-29 at 2.31.50 PM.png
 

Taylor Campbell

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PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
893
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
I haven’t looked too much into it, but feel like a pattern flip is due in November that could give way to an uptick in severe weather. Has anyone seen anything in models to suggest concern?
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I haven’t looked too much into it, but feel like a pattern flip is due in November that could give way to an uptick in severe weather. Has anyone seen anything in models to suggest concern?
This western drought keeps feeding back ridging out west that I’m not very keen on. But that’s me speaking off the cuff and not really analyzing much. But that drought is...bad.
 

MichelleH

Member
Messages
394
Location
Hanceville, AL
Tomorrow’s severe wx threat as Delta recurves looks like a sneakily impressive threat. I bet we get a few tornado warnings tomorrow across MS/AL.

Yeah, even Spann posted about 30 minutes ago that he's growing concerned about the tornado threat tomorrow in AL. Said the analogs are comparing Delta to Danny.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Yeah, even Spann posted about 30 minutes ago that he's growing concerned about the tornado threat tomorrow in AL. Said the analogs are comparing Delta to Danny.
Danny is definitely in the upper echelon of inland tornado outbreaks from hurricanes. Not sure that we reach that level, but I definitely could see a slight risk and a tornado watch at some point.
 
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