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Archive Severe Weather 2019

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rolltide_130 said:
A marked uptick may be coming as we head into April. This 10 day lull we're in now may soon be coming to an abrupt end..
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Yeah, the models are coming in with a more agreed on, and busier look now. A severe threat is showing by the end of this week. Then there are potential threats in the next week.
 
I'm not seeing any widespread, organized event in the near future. Although Friday looks like a disorganized system that could provide a chance at some isolated severe with the higher instability working in, but meager upper-level support.
 
Things will be changing.....



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
429 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019

.DISCUSSION...



Return flow and shower chances should increase ahead of a more
significant shortwave trough with strong ascent approaching the
region Wednesday night. But the greater moisture transport/
destabilization are expected to team up Thursday when
precipitable water reaches 1.5 inches while mid level lapse rates
exceed 7.5 deg c/km and showalter indices drop to around -4.
Initial deep convection could be elevated, and the potential for
sfc-based storms is still questionable given the strong signal in
guidance for coastal convective development to potentially
intercept richer moisture content. Having said that, strong deep
layer shear and lift orientation support supercells, so large hail
could be a concern regardless of the low level response. Will
follow SPC in showing a slight risk for Thursday and include a
mention of this in the HWO/graphics.

Following this system, expect a brief lull in the increasingly
active weather pattern from Friday into Saturday with above normal
temperatures before the next, perhaps more significant system,
approaches next Sunday. /EC/
 
Timhsv said:
Things will be changing.....



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
429 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019

.DISCUSSION...



Return flow and shower chances should increase ahead of a more
significant shortwave trough with strong ascent approaching the
region Wednesday night. But the greater moisture transport/
destabilization are expected to team up Thursday when
precipitable water reaches 1.5 inches while mid level lapse rates
exceed 7.5 deg c/km and showalter indices drop to around -4.
Initial deep convection could be elevated, and the potential for
sfc-based storms is still questionable given the strong signal in
guidance for coastal convective development to potentially
intercept richer moisture content. Having said that, strong deep
layer shear and lift orientation support supercells, so large hail
could be a concern regardless of the low level response. Will
follow SPC in showing a slight risk for Thursday and include a
mention of this in the HWO/graphics.

Following this system, expect a brief lull in the increasingly
active weather pattern from Friday into Saturday with above normal
temperatures before the next, perhaps more significant system,
approaches next Sunday. /EC/
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Agree. Gfs ensemble s. Picking up on a system next week ... could be widespread threat.... worth keeping eye on... pna appears to be going back negative in a big way will enhance severe chances heading April ...
 
Slight risk over Oklahoma on for day 3.

day3otlk_0730.gif
 
Models are also beginning to hint towards a potential setup next Sunday. Very classic negative tilt trough setup was depicted on the 0z Euro which has my attention.
 
rolltide_130 said:
Models are also beginning to hint towards a potential setup next Sunday. Very classic negative tilt trough setup was depicted on the 0z Euro which has my attention.
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Would this potential system be Sunday the 7th or Sunday the 14th? This Sunday, the 7th, I will be in Florida while the following Sunday, the 14th, is my birthday.
 
One caveat to that though is the AO/NAO nosedive into negative territory. It MAY be enough to shake up the pattern. But I suspect we’ll just be seeing these nickel and dime severe events for the foreseeable future.
 
Kory said:
Seems to constantly be in the mid to long range. Usually not the best prospects if you’re looking for a pattern to materialize.
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Some of the climate modelers are saying don't expect a favorable pattern to appear until mid-late May. Of course take everything with a grain of salt but these long range threats need to start becoming medium range threats.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
If the 0z euro is correct.... severe weather going get buisy mid long range ....
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It goes beyond the EURO. The GFS, and other globals are picking up on the busy pattern. The GFS has been trending more favorable both on ops, and ensembles for all these potential threats.
 
Euro still looking ominous with couple threats .... mid April through May things going be active appears... can’t help but like the troughs the euro has been consistently showing digging in the sw corner of the country ... as a storm chaser ... I like were headed as go deeper in spring .... models also appear backing off on negative nao later this month .... worth keeping eye out .....
 
This pattern is still very 2017 to 2018-like, with the more favourable setups for severe weather constantly being out in fantasy land and trending down rapidly as we get closer to each one. I'm not trying to be "that guy" who's skeptical of every event here, but I feel like we won't be seeing a more favourable pattern for a while. That being said I remember I was pretty convinced March 3 would be a total Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, so take what I say with a massive grain of salt.
 
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