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    April 17-19, 2019 Forecast DIscussion

Severe Weather 2019 (9 Viewers)


rolltide_130

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Harvest, Alabama
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12Z OP GFS has a very amped system for the 25th-26th which verbatim would be a widespread severe weather outbreak but probably TOO amped for an ideal tornado scenario (although yesterday showed that's not always the case), then after that moves out it has the dreaded long-wavelength, low amplitude trough looming at the end of the run. Of course this will change many times between now and verification hour, but the idea is there and supported by the ensembles.
Surprisingly that might actually still be able to work as a tornado threat. Wind profiles are actually quite decent and there is no STJ interfering with it as of right now. Going to need to watch but that looks interesting.
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Looks like longer range models are keying in on Tuesday the 26th to Thursday the 28th for the next large scale system. Timing differences and evolution of the trough are big question marks right now, but the GFS is doozy for that time frame as well as the FV3. EPS ensemble looks like they have a system in that time frame as well.
 

Kory

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Kory, if the kind of systems we have seen in March persist into April with more heat and higher dewpoints, it would be a bad scenario, would it not?
More widespread quality low level moisture and instability that comes with later spring months definitely would’ve made this past system much worse. So yes, I suspect if we keep having the potent kinematic systems we’ve been having, we’re gonna be in for trouble.
 

RollTide18

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50
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Montgomery, AL
More widespread quality low level moisture and instability that comes with later spring months definitely would’ve made this past system much worse. So yes, I suspect if we keep having the potent kinematic systems we’ve been having, we’re gonna be in for trouble.
Thankfully the storms last week were ever so slightly elevated, still caused some tornadoes but it seemed as if every storm was rotating, showing that classic kidney bean shape.
 

Austin Dawg

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Messages
77
Location
Austin Texas
More widespread quality low level moisture and instability that comes with later spring months definitely would’ve made this past system much worse. So yes, I suspect if we keep having the potent kinematic systems we’ve been having, we’re gonna be in for trouble.
Thanks, Kory! The information I have heard echo's what rolltide said, which is why I asked. We have missed the severe weather here in Central Texas for a while but I keep hearing we would be along the firing line as well. We don't have the tornadoes quite as much as seriously dangerous flash flooding and unreal hailstorms. Still, I have a lot of very close friends and family in Mississippi and Alabama, and they have always looked to me to keep up with how bad things might be.

I keep going back to 2011 because I was not keeping up with things like I should that afternoon of the 27th after watching so much happen very early in the day and the day/night before. I actually fell asleep from being up so much and the next thing I know I am watching a tornado in Tuscaloosa while hearing that my hometown got wiped off the map and I can't get Mom or my brother on the phone.

I don't want to be caught sleeping again.
 

warneagle

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Yeah I mainly meant for Saturday in the Plains where there’s at least some tornado threat. It’s not eye-popping but it’s not nothing.
 

Weatherphreak

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Huntsville
Low placement on the March 25 has been all over the place for Dixie on the GFS and FV3. Storm toward the end of the month looks like another trouble maker. ‘‘Tis the season.
 

Kory

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Haven't been able to check the long-range models in a while, but is April still looking active?
The more “favorable” pattern keeps slipping back in time on the models. Usually a red flag. MJO being stuck in the COD is allowing the background El Niño state to dominate thus split flow out west with +PNA. If we can get the MJO to progress into phases 7/8/1/2 much like Feb and early March, we may see an uptick again. But right now, I'm hesitant on anything beyond 2 weeks and it’s not looking very active.
 
Messages
323
Location
Madison, WI
The more “favorable” pattern keeps slipping back in time on the models. Usually a red flag. MJO being stuck in the COD is allowing the background El Niño state to dominate thus split flow out west with +PNA. If we can get the MJO to progress into phases 7/8/1/2 much like Feb and early March, we may see an uptick again. But right now, I'm hesitant on anything beyond 2 weeks and it’s not looking very active.
What is the "COD" in this context?

Why are those particular MJO phases more favorable for severe weather in the CONUS?

Early April always seems to be tricky, anyway. You can get the occasional biggies (much like March and Beauregard), but you're just as likely if not more to see issues with moisture return (cold fronts too close together), meridional flow, etc. Look at 2017 - all those high risks and nothing anywhere near that significant. The first part of mid-April is only now getting into fantasy range of the GFS.
 
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