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Archive Severe Weather 2019

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Part of the reason why this pattern is producing system after system with favorable severe weather parameters is the North Pacific. This is about as favorable as I have seen the NPAC since the cooler regime pre-2012. Despite being in an El Nino (that image shows a solid nino), we are seeing a lot of polar jet action.

Also, the Gulf of Mexico is torching.

rwFywHk.png
 
When is the second system (after this weekend's system) suppose to produce severe weather ??

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KG4KBU said:
When is the second system (after this weekend's system) suppose to produce severe weather ??

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That system will have a much better warm sector to work with ... as modeled today. By the 12z euro ... later next week ... so there going be some changes ... but man the pattern. Is Alive n kicking with possible big trouble ...
 
Want to say temper the expectations some. Widespread severe likely with a trough ejecting Tuesday but the high amplitude nature suggests very strong forcing and most likely a mess of storms. Likely rapid upscale growth too. Good to see more rains out west.
 
MetFromTheBlue said:
Want to say temper the expectations some. Widespread severe likely with a trough ejecting Tuesday but the high amplitude nature suggests very strong forcing and most likely a mess of storms. Likely rapid upscale growth too. Good to see more rains out west.
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Storm mode may be different (I alluded to more linear forcing earlier) but I’m not sure that means a decrease in severe threat.
 
Kory said:
Storm mode may be different (I alluded to more linear forcing earlier) but I’m not sure that means a decrease in severe threat.
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it depends. But for the most part.. linear modes out west this early in the year aren’t going to produce significant severe. QLCS tornadoes maybe, but we aren’t likely looking at anything major on Tuesday going into Wednesday. Just observations from the many high-amp early season troughs we see in March/April.

Big scary troughs don’t always mean big severe. Widespread wind reports probably but as things stand now I don’t expect anything significant on Tuesday. Of course, a few changes could make for a different story.
 
I have noticed over the years that when we have a pattern like this in early March the severe weather season in the southeast tends to wrap up earlier in April vs. later. It seems the westerlies start pulling northward when it is so active in early March. Regardless, given the above normal sea temperatures in the Gulf does make me think instability may over perform in the coming weeks creating what could be a volatile setup possibly multiple times going into early April...assuming the STJ doesnt inhibit every opportunity.
 
Richardjacks said:
I have noticed over the years that when we have a pattern like this in early March the severe weather season in the southeast tends to wrap up earlier in April vs. later. It seems the westerlies start pulling northward when it is so active in early March. Regardless, given the above normal sea temperatures in the Gulf does make me think instability may over perform in the coming weeks creating what could be a volatile setup possibly multiple times going into early April...assuming the STJ doesnt inhibit every opportunity.
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I wouldn't be so quick to write off an early ending to April either. I'm not trying to be alarming or disagree just to disagree, but the monthly outlooks for not only April but May support continued activity.. this year could be an active one not just for Dixie but for everywhere.
 
We have an ULL coming in near the middle of next week and the Euro drops it to 984, GFS upper 970s. Not seeing anything eye popping right now besides the depth of the low and some strong wind shear in areas. Still a lot to be worked out, doesn't look to be much of a Dixie threat with the wind direction matching up with the front. As of now it looks like additional flooding is the biggest risk.
I'm wondering if we'll have a big squall season this year. Similar to, 2012 was it?
 
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