That system will have a much better warm sector to work with ... as modeled today. By the 12z euro ... later next week ... so there going be some changes ... but man the pattern. Is Alive n kicking with possible big trouble ...When is the second system (after this weekend's system) suppose to produce severe weather ??
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Storm mode may be different (I alluded to more linear forcing earlier) but I’m not sure that means a decrease in severe threat.Want to say temper the expectations some. Widespread severe likely with a trough ejecting Tuesday but the high amplitude nature suggests very strong forcing and most likely a mess of storms. Likely rapid upscale growth too. Good to see more rains out west.
it depends. But for the most part.. linear modes out west this early in the year aren’t going to produce significant severe. QLCS tornadoes maybe, but we aren’t likely looking at anything major on Tuesday going into Wednesday. Just observations from the many high-amp early season troughs we see in March/April.Storm mode may be different (I alluded to more linear forcing earlier) but I’m not sure that means a decrease in severe threat.
I wouldn't be so quick to write off an early ending to April either. I'm not trying to be alarming or disagree just to disagree, but the monthly outlooks for not only April but May support continued activity.. this year could be an active one not just for Dixie but for everywhere.I have noticed over the years that when we have a pattern like this in early March the severe weather season in the southeast tends to wrap up earlier in April vs. later. It seems the westerlies start pulling northward when it is so active in early March. Regardless, given the above normal sea temperatures in the Gulf does make me think instability may over perform in the coming weeks creating what could be a volatile setup possibly multiple times going into early April...assuming the STJ doesnt inhibit every opportunity.