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Severe Weather 2019 (11 Viewers)


rolltide_130

Member
Messages
782
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
This is really starting to emerge as a classic E AL setup. I've been doing some research, and I've found that events that typically produce violent tornadoes in East AL have a more easterly component to their storm flow than events west of I-65. It seems to be that it may be due to challenges with getting instability into that region of the state without SSW sfc winds, and that makes sense due to the location of the FL Peninsula inhibiting moist return flow northward with a S to SSE trajectory. In order to compensate for that you need SW 850s and a W 500mb jet, which leads to the differences in tracks when comparing W AL to E AL.

Tuscaloosa and places like that may wind up not bearing the brunt of the threat this go-around, but this is beginning to look potentially omnious for some of our classic eastern corridors like Piedmont, Anniston, Oxford, and Gadsden..
 
Messages
163
Location
Daleville, AL
Special Affiliations
I'm Kinda surprised there isn't a marginal risk for severe today (Friday). The models below and HRRR and HRW seem to have a very marginal tornado risk.

Latest outlook from SPC
...Gulf Coast states...

Low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough currently located
over southeast TX will move through the lower MS Valley and
Southeast States tonight. 00Z RAOB data near and inland from the
Gulf Coast show weak surface-based instability (200-500 J/kg MLCAPE)
in a corridor east of a slow-moving cold front that extends from
northern AL into southwest LA. A modest southwesterly low-level jet
will evolve within the marginally unstable warm sector, and forcing
for ascent will remain sufficient for thunderstorms, though coverage
should gradually decrease as the surface layer stabilizes.
Annotation 2019-02-28 235907.jpgAnnotation 2019-03-01 000057.jpg
 

jmills

Member
Messages
106
Location
Troy, AL/Montevallo, AL
Next weekend (10 days) looks like it might be active. Both the GFS and Euro have systems in the eastern half of the U.S. during this time frame, but obviously that can (and will likely) change.

cfs_bchiclet.png
 

Weatherphreak

Member
Messages
84
Location
Huntsville
Looks like the next two weekends have a low traveling in just the right spot to put most of Dixie in line for some rough weather. I’m a newbie at reading maps so maybe someone with more knowledge can verify. Still 7 and over 14 days out so lots of time to speed up slow down or disappear completely.
 

akt1985

Member
Messages
415
Location
Madison, Alabama
Looks like the next two weekends have a low traveling in just the right spot to put most of Dixie in line for some rough weather. I’m a newbie at reading maps so maybe someone with more knowledge can verify. Still 7 and over 14 days out so lots of time to speed up slow down or disappear completely.
Are we talking next Saturday for the Tennessee Valley? I have plans to go on a day trip to outside Chattanooga with some friends.
 
Messages
331
Location
Madison, WI
It's a week out but next Saturday has already started to pique my interest. For the first time this year (way more so than with 2/23), the GFS shows a broad, unstable warm sector. SBCAPE 1500-2000 j/kg from E TX to W GA, and as far north as TN. Lapse rates are shown exceeding 8 degrees C/km in some areas.

...and hey, if we want to keep the trend of severe threats appearing on the weekends going through the chase season, I'd be OK with that!

That system would be quite a snowstorm for the upper Midwest, too. One last hurrah for winter before this frigid pattern finally breaks? I can hope...
 
Last edited:

warneagle

Member
Messages
1,392
Location
Silver Spring, MD
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
Yeah the signal for something potentially significant next weekend has been pretty consistent over the last few days, even if the models can’t agree on the exact nature and timing yet.
 

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