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Severe Weather 2019 (5 Viewers)


Timhsv

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130
Location
Meridianville, AL.
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It is going to be a long week of model watching for this one. No doubt there will be shifts between now and then especially with timing, amplitude and width of the trough.
I kinda hate to look ahead, especially after today. But.....The GFS has a fairly board warm sector , a strongly negative tiled 500mb trough, and a 65knt 850 Jet covering most of the Lower Ms. Valley next Saturday. The Dixie states might as well prepare, the next several weeks looks convectively active.

KBMX:
There synoptic indications of a more active pattern with more significant
passing Rossby Waves across the CONUS.


Tornado season is here now...PLAN...PREPARE...PRAY
 
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Messages
16
Location
Bossier City, LA
I wouldn’t jump on that train quite yet, at least on placement. Both European and GFS ensembles are well west of where their respective operational 00Z members lie. Still looking like a bulk of the activity on Saturday at least would be in the E Texas region pushing into adjacent Ark-La-Tex. We shall see, so much can change and the European ensemble had a little more spread in its 00z run than prior runs.
 
Messages
333
Location
jackson tennessee
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SKYWARN® Volunteer
I wouldn’t jump on that train quite yet, at least on placement. Both European and GFS ensembles are well west of where their respective operational 00Z members lie. Still looking like a bulk of the activity on Saturday at least would be in the E Texas region pushing into adjacent Ark-La-Tex. We shall see, so much can change and the European ensemble had a little more spread in its 00z run than prior runs.
Climatology ... central plains severe season gets going later... like early May n beyond... so I got my eye on this one closely being further east... none the less... long range pattern. Screams severe next couple weeks n beyond perhaps ....
 
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333
Location
jackson tennessee
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SKYWARN® Volunteer
There is still some discrepancy as to how the trough will eject. A more GFS/UKMET/CMC solution would yield a significant threat for the Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley/Dixie. The EML on that sucker is unreal.
Yeah. It’s classic euro holding back the energy trough ... while the gfs ejects it sooner... we see 12z suits do
 

KoD

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761
Location
Huntsville, AL
GFS soundings showed some outrageously perfect looped hodographs, but supercell composite is not as high as you'd expect. There must be an ingredient that is lacking that's embedded in the formula for the models composite. Maybe the meager low level lapse rates? Sbcape?
 

Kory

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Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
GFS soundings showed some outrageously perfect looped hodographs, but supercell composite is not as high as you'd expect. There must be an ingredient that is lacking that's embedded in the formula for the models composite. Maybe the meager low level lapse rates? Sbcape?
Looks like its a convective feedback with the complex of storms it develops over the Mid MS Valley that backs surface winds and advects lower dew points. I don't think we'll have an instability problem to be honest.
 
Messages
16
Location
Bossier City, LA
Looking like a very active severe weather day here. Shear profiles will be very favorable for discrete supercells particularly in east TX into Louisiana. Widespread 350-400 0-1 km SRH with large, looping hodographs will support potential for strong tornadoes. Limiting factor appears to be influence of a lead STJ disturbance that could bring showers and convection early on - limiting instability closer to peak heating. Regardless, significant tornado potential looks to be maximized in Ark-La-Tex region.

Lotta time for models to change yet again, but the signal has been pretty steady for some time. Would expect upscale growth into the afternoon hours as storms move into eastern Louisiana.

The northern risk area seems a little aggressive given instability progs now. It won’t take much instability up that way with the degree of synoptic/dynamic forcing expected.. but I remain skeptical of severe potential in the northern half of the risk area.
 

Richardjacks

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495
Location
Hoover, Al
Looking like a very active severe weather day here. Shear profiles will be very favorable for discrete supercells particularly in east TX into Louisiana. Widespread 350-400 0-1 km SRH with large, looping hodographs will support potential for strong tornadoes. Limiting factor appears to be influence of a lead STJ disturbance that could bring showers and convection early on - limiting instability closer to peak heating. Regardless, significant tornado potential looks to be maximized in Ark-La-Tex region.

Lotta time for models to change yet again, but the signal has been pretty steady for some time. Would expect upscale growth into the afternoon hours as storms move into eastern Louisiana.

The northern risk area seems a little aggressive given instability progs now. It won’t take much instability up that way with the degree of synoptic/dynamic forcing expected.. but I remain skeptical of severe potential in the northern half of the risk area.
I am skeptical too as to how far north the instability can push north, a lead wave will likely induce rain and make it less likely for the colder, drier air to be removed. Same idea as the last event, for now, I think the instability will be limited to maybe as little as 80 miles south of I20 in Alabama...depending on how EML gets established and advection.
 

Richardjacks

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495
Location
Hoover, Al
I am skeptical too as to how far north the instability can push north, a lead wave will likely induce rain and make it less likely for the colder, drier air to be removed. Same idea as the last event, for now, I think the instability will be limited to maybe as little as 80 miles south of I20 in Alabama...depending on how EML gets established and advection.
After digging a little deeper on last night's runs, now I am a little more concerned...if the warm front doesn't go as far north as progged, this could put the highest risk late at night over some large population centers near I20.
 
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Messages
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Location
jackson tennessee
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Ager digging a little deeper on last night's runs, now I am a little more concerned...if the warm front doesn't go as far north as progged, this could put the highest risk late at night over some large population centers near I20.
Question Richard... with the location of the slp modeled pretty far north ... like northern Missouri then pulling ne... what’ s preventing the warm sector to advance further north ? Is it the crap convection ongoing further north ? Holding further south
 

Richardjacks

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Meteorologist
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495
Location
Hoover, Al
Question Richard... with the location of the slp modeled pretty far north ... like northern Missouri then pulling ne... what’ s preventing the warm sector to advance further north ? Is it the crap convection ongoing further north ? Holding further south
see my latest post but the very active flow will likely produce rain and may keep the quality warm sector from expanding north, perhaps a bit more than progged...also got to watch for convection along the coast with the STJ.
 

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