Severe Weather 2019 (9 Viewers)


warneagle

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We’ll finally be getting into a warmer and more interesting pattern later this month after one more spell of brutal cold. In like a lion, etc.
 

andyhb

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Norman, OK
Both the 12z and 00z Euro runs had something on Sunday with a low amplitude wave passing through the zonal flow south of the TPV over Hudson Bay and amplifying the low level flow considerably with plenty of moisture in place. Would likely be a substantial threat for AL and GA. Not quite showing up on the remainder of guidance, but certainly an idea to watch.
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Both the 12z and 00z Euro runs had something on Sunday with a low amplitude wave passing through the zonal flow south of the TPV over Hudson Bay and amplifying the low level flow considerably with plenty of moisture in place. Would likely be a substantial threat for AL and GA. Not quite showing up on the remainder of guidance, but certainly an idea to watch.
GFS ensembles have nosed northward with instability, but it is not quite on the level of the Euro with rapid cyclogenesis and jet dynamics.
 

warneagle

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The GFS has some ideas about a potential multi-day threat next weekend (southern plains on Saturday and southeast on Sunday). Instability and moisture aren’t off the charts and it doesn’t exactly scream “outbreak” but something to watch at least.
 
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Madison, WI
IDK guys, Euro has had a tendency to oversell severe threats in the medium range (including last Saturday to an extent) for at least the last couple of years going back to the April 2017 outbreak-sequence-that-wasn't.
 

andyhb

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Norman, OK
Yeah taken verbatim that 12z Euro run is a very problematic Sunday across AL and GA. The convection it shows is certainly pre-frontal and it is moving through some hellacious low level shear and more than adequate instability (mid-upper level temps are substantially colder than the last event). There is also a clear EML advection into the area Sunday morning.

The issue here is we're starting to see the rest of the ensemble guidance shift towards the Euro idea (which is probably around the ceiling) with more poleward moisture advection and a stronger wave/SLP.
 

Taylor Campbell

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The GFS seems to be slowly trending in the direction of the EURO, and you also have the the CMC, and UK that show deeper surface cyclogenesis.
 

Taylor Campbell

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The GFS seems to be slowly trending in the direction of the EURO, and you also have the the CMC, and UK that show deeper surface cyclogenesis.
After the 18z run, it’s a more obvious trend.

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