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Archive Severe Weather 2019

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I'm not a meteorologist by any stretch, just someone who keeps up with the weather. I thought this tidbit from one of my local mets was interesting - pretty sure he's calling out Reed Timmer here. I trust these guys more than local mets for "no-hype" weather - so until this starts verifying late Thursday, I'm not too concerned.

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Spc highlighting area 6 days out is pretty confident in them... course changes can and will take place ias we draw closer this weekend ... got say models pretty much made it through today holding serve in a significant threat .. just to far out to dig into the thermals .... but that jet streak means business euro showing ...
 

Taylor Campbell

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Storm south of Pine Mountain, GA just went tornado warned.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Storm south of Pine Mountain, GA just went tornado warned.

Very bad place to be. It looks like it’s right over Callaway Gardens. If you’ve never been there before the place has a ton of pine trees, and a cabin resort surrounded by them!
 

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Several more storms in eastern Alabama have exhibited supercell characteristics, and rotation; though, none have been strong enough to prompt a warning at this time.
 

warneagle

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12z GFS certainly has a strong signal for a Friday event across roughly the same area as yesterday.
 

rolltide_130

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Also a type of setup we haven't seen here in a while. Flatter, nosing jet streak with ice-cold temperatures aloft coming over a relatively warm boundary layer. Not an STJ-influenced setup like yesterday's was as of right now either.
 

andyhb

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The issue here is going to be getting that ULL in the Pacific NW to phase properly with the PV lobe sinking south. Essentially, the PV lobe needs to act as a waveguide and allow the resulting shortwave to amplify and rotate around it as opposed to shearing it out or not forcing it southward a bit initially. There is also a lead shortwave on Thursday that will have some impacts on the resulting track of this system and the quality of moisture it has to work it.

Some of the 12z GEFS members were very impressive and probably would result in a substantial severe threat over a pretty large chunk of real estate.
 

Timhsv

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The issue here is going to be getting that ULL in the Pacific NW to phase properly with the PV lobe sinking south. Essentially, the PV lobe needs to act as a waveguide and allow the resulting shortwave to amplify and rotate around it as opposed to shearing it out or not forcing it southward a bit initially. There is also a lead shortwave on Thursday that will have some impacts on the resulting track of this system and the quality of moisture it has to work it.

Some of the 12z GEFS members were very impressive and probably would result in a substantial severe threat over a pretty large chunk of real estate.
Andy...Are you in Met school now?
 

Timhsv

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I'm a grad student at OU in meteorology now.

OK, thats awesome to hear! I had thought so after reading one of your tech discussions one day. Congratulations on your work and career. Tell Patrick Marsh at SPC I said hello out there;)
 

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The GFS, and it’s ensembles continue to support a supercell outbreak Friday into Saturday. There are several matches for significant supercells, and severe hail on the forecast soundings. The likelyhood that these storms produce severe weather appear to be very high in this type of setup that the GFS forecast.
 
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The GFS, and it’s ensembles continue to support a supercell outbreak Friday into Saturday. There are several matches for significant supercells, and severe hail on the forecast soundings. The likelyhood that these storms produce severe weather appear to be very high in this type of setup that the GFS forecast.

SPC playing it a little cautious with no area outlooked yet due to disagreement among models. Can't say as I blame them after Saturday.
 

rolltide_130

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I'm really having a hard time feeling this weekend's system as of now. Severe inconsistency and a laundry list of things need to go PERFECTLY right for this type of nosing-jet setup to really work out. These are relatively rare and for good reason - its very difficult for them to work. Gonna need to see some consistent uptrending between now and Friday for me to really take this one seriously.
 
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I'm really having a hard time feeling this weekend's system as of now. Severe inconsistency and a laundry list of things need to go PERFECTLY right for this type of nosing-jet setup to really work out. These are relatively rare and for good reason - its very difficult for them to work. Gonna need to see some consistent uptrending between now and Friday for me to really take this one seriously.
Trough to me for one. It’s just to flat
 

andyhb

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Looks like the phase is going to not happen properly, next.
 
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