GFS instability isn't something to really take at face value during the cool season. It struggles MIGHTILY with thermodynamics in general, much less in February. When using the GFS, I look for the synoptic pattern and then ask myself if the smaller details like instability it's showing makes sense. Oftentimes, it doesn't.Verbatim GFS instability is not impressive, probably would be a modest event similar to yesterday-today with those values.
A significant trough will begin to take shape across the Plains on
Monday, and the ejection of one or more lead waves may encourage the
warm front to move northward Monday night into Tuesday. Run-to-run
consistency with this system remains poor, but a quality warm sector
may become established across Alabama by Tuesday morning. While
instability could become sufficient for thunderstorms, currently the
strongest dynamics and height falls appear to remain to our
northwest as the trough becomes negatively tilted on Tuesday. If
that trend continues, any potential for severe storms would be
rather limited. At this time, confidence is too low for any mention
in the HWO. A cold frontal passage is expected on Tuesday into
Tuesday night with widespread rainfall and cooler and drier
conditions for Wednesday.
It looks like we are going to get through this week without a significant severe weather threat, but the potential for one next week is growing legs. The EURO model has been consistent on developing several thunderstorms in a large, and sheared warm sector early next week. Although the operational GFS isn’t as enthusiastic, more and more of its ensembles are starting to support the EURO.The amount of jet energy the globals show traversing the United States over the next two weeks is pretty wild! How significant, and exactly where these severe weather events occur appear to be highly uncertain at this point, but I suspect there will be many threats with a lot of potential for them to be bad. I would not write with much confidence about Tuesday's threat yet. Some model indications have been more significant than others.