Archive Severe Weather 2019

[Equus]

From BMX's AFD...



The system exiting on Monday will have implications for a potentially ominous weather pattern taking shape just beyond the end of the forecast period. Models have trended less intrusive with the front into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, yielding a greater potential for quality moisture recovery ahead of the next system on Thursday April 11th. This setup will be closely watched

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

From BMX's AFD...



The system exiting on Monday will have implications for a potentially ominous weather pattern taking shape just beyond the end of the forecast period. Models have trended less intrusive with the front into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, yielding a greater potential for quality moisture recovery ahead of the next system on Thursday April 11th. This setup will be closely watched

100 percent agree... don’t know what other members on here seeing ... h5 pattern setting up screams trouble

 

[Kory]

I've yet to see anything consistent within 7 days. MJO looks to stay in the COD through the mid-range. Overall background pattern favors El Nino (given the very +AAM). I'm cautious on looking at a system 10+ days away because we haven't been in a favorable pattern for widespread severe in a few weeks now. I do think the high latitude blocking will actually favor a more favorable pattern, despite that going against intuition, but we have to see exactly how that sets up.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah, unusual and surprising for an NWS office to mention severe potential for a specific day over a week out. Now if the background pattern was favorable and the ensembles and op models had been in good agreement for a while I could see it, but that's not really the case here.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Yeah, unusual and surprising for an NWS office to mention severe potential over a week out. Now if the background pattern was favorable and the ensembles and op models had been in good agreement for a while I could see it, but that's not really the case here.

Still disagree here cause ... gfs enameles has been showing couple threats in near future ... and euro been picking up on this still just been recently ... we see. Nws not going make this up... interesting see how we go from here

 

[Equus]

If there's severe this month I'd kind of like for it to be then since I'm actually going to be home that week...

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

System on 4. 11 is down right nasty on today’s 12 z euro run. Gets cape values nearing 2000 in Tennessee also with higher values south.... that could be the one watch for

 

[Kory]

A lot is going to hinge on how Monday's system progresses. Euro and company have a system that scours all of the quality low level moisture out of the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico, which results in a meager sytem that synoptically looks very potent for NEXT Thursday.

 

[Kory]

System on 4. 11 is down right nasty on today’s 12 z euro run. Gets cape values nearing 2000 in Tennessee also with higher values south.... that could be the one watch for

I don't see where you're getting this from. Looks like a very narrow and unimpressive warm sector. There's some issues with the LLJ due to the trailing shortwave from Monday/Tuesday.

IF you're looking for Thursday to be a bigger day, Monday's system will need to shear out and lift NE...not amplify and linger like it currently does.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

A lot is going to hinge on how Monday's system progresses. Euro and company have a system that scours all of the quality low level moisture out of the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico, which results in a meager sytem that synoptically looks very potent for NEXT Thursday.

Next Thursday one talking bout Kory ccrrect ...

 

[Weatherphreak]

The low placement on next Thursday’s system has been consistent for a couple runs but has yet to shown precipitation on the gfs or FV3 south of the Ohio valley. Maybe I’m reading the models incorrectly but it’ll be worth watching for sure to see if it those two models follow the euro.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I didn't mean to write off the entire severe season, I was really just saying I'm not expecting much out of the next system or two. It's entirely possible that next Thursday's system could end up being a fairly robust event, at least for damaging straight-line winds.

 

[Argus]

Should we start a thread for Monday's system?

 

[Kory]

Monday looks like a run of the mill severe threat, so we could probably go ahead and start that thread. Overall, instability looks very high but dynamics are on the weak side.

Bigger thing from Monday’s threat is that is scours out a lot of quality moisture thus leaving Thursday’s system bone dry with a very narrow and unimpressive warm sector.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Monday looks like a run of the mill severe threat, so we could probably go ahead and start that thread. Overall, instability looks very high but dynamics are on the weak side.

Bigger thing from Monday’s threat is that is scours out a lot of quality moisture thus leaving Thursday’s system bone dry with a very narrow and unimpressive warm sector.

still wouldn't sleep on next Thursdays system... some things like that got plenty time for change... as we get deeper in april... moisture return will be less of a problem... as moisture from the deep gulf and even the carribbean will be available...

 

[Kory]

When you have 60 degree dew points down to the Yucatán, you’re gonna need more than 2 days of moisture recovery.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040748
SPC AC 040748

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2019

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Low-level trajectories will become more favorable for the transport
of moisture north across the Gulf basin into the southern US into
early next week. Models continue to suggest an active southern
stream that will undoubtedly encourage deep convection and possible
severe at times. Organized severe thunderstorms are expected during
the day3 period across TX into the lower MS Valley. However,
considerable convective overturning, and the likelihood for poor
short wave timing, lends to low predictability early in the period.
Even so, significant convection may ultimately spread across the
lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States during the day4-5 time
frame. Beyond day5, focus for deep convection may shift into the
central/southern Plains, especially day7 when a potentially
significant cyclone may evolve. However, moisture quality is
somewhat questionable for this event.

..Darrow.. 04/04/2019

Just about every day through next week looks to bring a severe weather threat somewhere across the central, and eastern US. Early indications suggest this may continue into the 10-14 day period.

 

[Weatherphreak]

April 12-19 look like we get back to back to back systems with the one on the 19th looking especially interesting.

 

[Kory]

With A-Day next weekend, will have to keep an eye on model trends. Lots of people in Tuscaloosa for that.

 

[KoD]

April 14-15th system looks like it has potential, especially on the 06z GFS. Still discrepancies between Euro & GFS and some run to run inconsistency but it's pretty far out still. We'll see how the trend goes as we get closer but I'm keeping a close eye on it.