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Archive Severe Weather 2019

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skelly

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April 14-15th system looks like it has potential, especially on the 06z GFS. Still discrepancies between Euro & GFS and some run to run inconsistency but it's pretty far out still. We'll see how the trend goes as we get closer but I'm keeping a close eye on it.

zaPTsHv.jpg
As of now what are implications for A-day? My HS percussionist son islooking forward to playing with M$B that day...
 

ARCC

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April 14-15th system looks like it has potential, especially on the 06z GFS. Still discrepancies between Euro & GFS and some run to run inconsistency but it's pretty far out still. We'll see how the trend goes as we get closer but I'm keeping a close eye on it.

zaPTsHv.jpg

That is the one to watch. The Euro washes out the front on the Thursday/Friday system and would prime the threat for the Sunday system.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Verbatim last night’s EURO was a tornado outbreak across the southeast states next Sunday the 15th. This isn’t the only time it or other model guidance have shown something quite significant taking place on this date. We will need to watch this one closely!
 

ARCC

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Verbatim last night’s EURO was a tornado outbreak across the southeast states next Sunday the 15th. This isn’t the only time it or other model guidance have shown something quite significant taking place on this date. We will need to watch this one closely!

Instability certainly is there, other things need some work. Plenty of time to for things to change.
 

Kory

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Verbatim last night’s EURO was a tornado outbreak across the southeast states next Sunday the 15th. This isn’t the only time it or other model guidance have shown something quite significant taking place on this date. We will need to watch this one closely!
12z holds serve. About half of the GEFS members do not look anything like the messy operational and support more of a tornado/severe wx threat.
 
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Most guidance generally seems to support an increased severe threat toward the mid-latter part of April compared to the lower-end wind/hail events we are seeing now. How high the ceiling gets and whether the affected area will be the TN Valley/Dixie or also include the Plains and Midwest remains to be seen.
 

Kory

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You think if it’s certain to rain and storm they still hold it or postpone or cancel?
Probably move it indoors if there is a chance of severe. I want to say they ended it early in 2017 due to storms/lightning but I only stayed the first half, so I could be wrong.
 

Fred Gossage

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I don't trust the GFS/FV3 operational look. It goes strongly against its own ensembles, shows very low run-to-run consistency, and it's obvious that the FV3 is suffering from feedback, with it focusing on an MCS-driven surface low in south AL as the primary low, only to magically jump to south central KY with the primary low 6 hours later. The vast majority of ensembles and non-GFS/FV3 operational models have an unsettling surface low track from Arkansas into Kentucky/Indiana and a low-amplitude negative tilt trough blowing through here. I'm still not ready to fully jump on it yet, but we're rapidly running out of time for this to just be model noise...
 

Timhsv

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I don't trust the GFS/FV3 operational look. It goes strongly against its own ensembles, shows very low run-to-run consistency, and it's obvious that the FV3 is suffering from feedback, with it focusing on an MCS-driven surface low in south AL as the primary low, only to magically jump to south central KY with the primary low 6 hours later. The vast majority of ensembles and non-GFS/FV3 operational models have an unsettling surface low track from Arkansas into Kentucky/Indiana and a low-amplitude negative tilt trough blowing through here. I'm still not ready to fully jump on it yet, but we're rapidly running out of time for this to just be model noise...


Fred what time period are you focused on?
 
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Xenesthis

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I am in agreement here as well. If the surface low tracks that way with a low amplitude negative tilt trough we will have issues... The instability will be there... If this trend continues next Sunday may be a long day
 
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