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Archive Severe Weather 2019

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KoD said:
April 14-15th system looks like it has potential, especially on the 06z GFS. Still discrepancies between Euro & GFS and some run to run inconsistency but it's pretty far out still. We'll see how the trend goes as we get closer but I'm keeping a close eye on it.

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As of now what are implications for A-day? My HS percussionist son islooking forward to playing with M$B that day...
 
KoD said:
April 14-15th system looks like it has potential, especially on the 06z GFS. Still discrepancies between Euro & GFS and some run to run inconsistency but it's pretty far out still. We'll see how the trend goes as we get closer but I'm keeping a close eye on it.

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That is the one to watch. The Euro washes out the front on the Thursday/Friday system and would prime the threat for the Sunday system.
 
Verbatim last night’s EURO was a tornado outbreak across the southeast states next Sunday the 15th. This isn’t the only time it or other model guidance have shown something quite significant taking place on this date. We will need to watch this one closely!
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Verbatim last night’s EURO was a tornado outbreak across the southeast states next Sunday the 15th. This isn’t the only time it or other model guidance have shown something quite significant taking place on this date. We will need to watch this one closely!
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Instability certainly is there, other things need some work. Plenty of time to for things to change.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Verbatim last night’s EURO was a tornado outbreak across the southeast states next Sunday the 15th. This isn’t the only time it or other model guidance have shown something quite significant taking place on this date. We will need to watch this one closely!
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12z holds serve. About half of the GEFS members do not look anything like the messy operational and support more of a tornado/severe wx threat.
 
skelly said:
You think if it’s certain to rain and storm they still hold it or postpone or cancel?
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Probably move it indoors if there is a chance of severe. I want to say they ended it early in 2017 due to storms/lightning but I only stayed the first half, so I could be wrong.
 
I don't trust the GFS/FV3 operational look. It goes strongly against its own ensembles, shows very low run-to-run consistency, and it's obvious that the FV3 is suffering from feedback, with it focusing on an MCS-driven surface low in south AL as the primary low, only to magically jump to south central KY with the primary low 6 hours later. The vast majority of ensembles and non-GFS/FV3 operational models have an unsettling surface low track from Arkansas into Kentucky/Indiana and a low-amplitude negative tilt trough blowing through here. I'm still not ready to fully jump on it yet, but we're rapidly running out of time for this to just be model noise...
 
Fred Gossage said:
I don't trust the GFS/FV3 operational look. It goes strongly against its own ensembles, shows very low run-to-run consistency, and it's obvious that the FV3 is suffering from feedback, with it focusing on an MCS-driven surface low in south AL as the primary low, only to magically jump to south central KY with the primary low 6 hours later. The vast majority of ensembles and non-GFS/FV3 operational models have an unsettling surface low track from Arkansas into Kentucky/Indiana and a low-amplitude negative tilt trough blowing through here. I'm still not ready to fully jump on it yet, but we're rapidly running out of time for this to just be model noise...
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Fred what time period are you focused on?
 
I am in agreement here as well. If the surface low tracks that way with a low amplitude negative tilt trough we will have issues... The instability will be there... If this trend continues next Sunday may be a long day
 
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