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NorthGaWeather
Posted 24 April 2011 - 10:05 PM
69hr NAM sounding for KHSV is impressive!
Posted 24 April 2011 - 10:05 PM
69hr NAM sounding for KHSV is impressive!
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ARCC, on 24 April 2011 - 09:58 PM, said:
Uh oh, big change on the NAM, forms a secondary slp behind the main one. Could be a huge concern if it keeps sfc winds backed longer.
Fred Gossage, on 24 April 2011 - 10:09 PM, said:
That's actually been there for multiple runs of the NAM and GFS. We're not going to need the surface winds backed much more than they are already.... the 850-mb and up winds are trending more veered... which is doing the same thing that backing the surface winds would do. The forecast hodographs are now displaying the classic sickle configuration, with the rightward 90 degree kink at around 1 kilometer.
kbh_81, on 24 April 2011 - 10:11 PM, said:
say what?
Fred Gossage, on 24 April 2011 - 10:09 PM, said:
That's actually been there for multiple runs of the NAM and GFS. We're not going to need the surface winds backed much more than they are already.... the 850-mb and up winds are trending more veered... which is doing the same thing that backing the surface winds would do. The forecast hodographs are now displaying the classic sickle configuration, with the rightward 90 degree kink at around 1 kilometer.
kbh_81, on 24 April 2011 - 10:14 PM, said:
which means the longer the worse?
Fred Gossage, on 24 April 2011 - 10:09 PM, said:
That's actually been there for multiple runs of the NAM and GFS. We're not going to need the surface winds backed much more than they are already.... the 850-mb and up winds are trending more veered... which is doing the same thing that backing the surface winds would do. The forecast hodographs are now displaying the classic sickle configuration, with the rightward 90 degree kink at around 1 kilometer.
tennessee storm chaser, on 24 April 2011 - 10:17 PM, said:
fred, on the 0z nam tonight. does the memphis area still get in the warm sector or will the second low chokes it off. whats your thoughts for west tn on that run, thanks fred
The placement of the secondary surface low does keep the warm sector out of most of the Memphis metro area... possibly even out of your area... by the heat of the day Wednesday. I know that you are questioning something that Kevin T. wrote on TNWX. My personal advice to you is to not do that...
RollTide18, on 24 April 2011 - 10:23 PM, said:
Where does this leave the southern AL/MS area?
trency911, on 24 April 2011 - 10:29 PM, said:
Sorry for the IMBY question Fred, but how do you think this will play out for the Atlanta area?
Fred Gossage, on 24 April 2011 - 10:24 PM, said:
I think you're going to be under the gun again Wednesday.
Fred Gossage, on 24 April 2011 - 10:30 PM, said:
Things will probably be lining out by that time... but I still wouldn't rule out isolated tornadoes. Unless something changes... like mesoscale issues from north AL stuff Tuesday night... your main threat may be a linear configuration with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
mwbwhorton, on 24 April 2011 - 10:34 PM, said:
im guessing northern louisiana is in the crapper at the moment if areas of southern miss,and alabama look bad.....and that memphis may stay out of the warm sector alarms me greatly....