Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

[TW Archive]

tennessee storm chaser
Posted 25 April 2011 - 08:24 AM

3 days of moderate risk in a row, incredible indeed... i think tomorrows day 2 risk has a chacne to go high, least portions of it. and look for day 3 to be upgraded to high risk a good portion of that. anyone else agree with that.?

 

[TW Archive]

trency911
Posted 25 April 2011 - 08:30 AM

SPC MARS is still showing some decent probs.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mref_mars/

 

[TW Archive]

djbarker
Posted 25 April 2011 - 08:46 AM

And there's another analog site that shows some good matches as well:

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/analog.php

 

[TW Archive]

smokedevil
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:39 AM

I've never seen this many days of severs storms forecast for here before.

Today
Severe
Tstms
Hi 86 °F

Tonight
Severe
Tstms
Lo 67 °F

Tuesday
Severe
Tstms
Hi 84 °F

Tuesday
Night
Severe
Tstms
Lo 68 °F

Wednesday
Severe
Tstms
Hi 78 °F
Edited by smokedevil, 25 April 2011 - 10:03 AM.

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:49 AM

Smokedevil im seeing the same type of forecast our local mets said expect two or three rounds with the worst or most tornadic coming Tuesday evening....
Edited by mwbwhorton, 25 April 2011 - 09:49 AM.

 

[TW Archive]

aarontabr
Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:57 AM

New severe thunderstorm watch out for Memphis area.

 

[TW Archive]

smokedevil
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:27 AM

mwbwhorton, on 25 April 2011 - 09:49 AM, said:

Smokedevil im seeing the same type of forecast our local mets said expect two or three rounds with the worst or most tornadic coming Tuesday evening....

And if the severe threat wasnt enough, 6+'' of rain is possible. thats not good chasing conditions.
sidenote, every weather site i've visited pretty much has all the mets agreeing a major outbreak is coming...scary stuff.
Edited by smokedevil, 25 April 2011 - 10:29 AM.

 

[TW Archive]

mdberry
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:40 AM

I am new to the board as far as posting, but read it quite regularly.

Reference the severe weather threat for those of us in the Huntsville, Al area, is there two specific threats; with one threat Tuesday, and then the major threat on Wednesday? If so, what do you think the timing will be both days in the Huntsville area? Also, are we still looking at a threat for a potential major tornado outbreak in North Alabama?

Thanks.......

 

[TW Archive]

rlsrlj
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:44 AM

Just got an email from Huntsville nws saying they will be doing a media briefing at 2pm concerning Tuesday and Wednesday. What's interesting about this one is that it will be done jointly with Bmx and Tallahassee. Don't remember that happening before, should be interesting.
Edited by rlsrlj, 25 April 2011 - 10:46 AM.

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:45 AM

aarontabr, on 25 April 2011 - 09:57 AM, said:

New severe thunderstorm watch out for Memphis area.

Yep that would be for the storms tracking across arkansas atm....

 

[TW Archive]

Tyler Penland

Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:48 AM

Well looks like I won't be totally left out of this one after all
Will be praying for you further west though as this looks to be pretty bad.
Edited by Tyler Penland, 25 April 2011 - 10:48 AM.

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:53 AM

thanx Tyler looking more and more like i may get slammed bigtime......

 

[TW Archive]

bingcrosbyb
Posted 25 April 2011 - 11:06 AM

12z NAM showing EHI values ranging from 4-8 common across LA/AR/TN/MS/AL as the system moves east. Also, don't think I've ever seen 3 moderate risk days in a row. Pretty extreme.

Valid Tuesday 6pm.
<<image not saved>>

 

[TW Archive]

skywatcher22
Posted 25 April 2011 - 11:11 AM

The GFS made a shift back towards more linear forcing on the 12z run, but it's still not as linear as it was a couple days ago. There should still be a significant risk of supercells/tornadoes with this scenario.

 

[TW Archive]

bingcrosbyb
Posted 25 April 2011 - 11:19 AM

Just took a peek at Accuweather and noticed Henry Margusity calling for "extreme" weather the next 3 days in the south/mid-south. Thinks there will be 200+ tornadoes this week. Not sure where he gets his numbers.

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 11:22 AM

bingcrosbyb, on 25 April 2011 - 11:19 AM, said:

Just took a peek at Accuweather and noticed Henry Margusity calling for "extreme" weather the next 3 days in the south/mid-south. Thinks there will be 200+ tornadoes this week. Not sure where he gets his numbers.

I too see an outbreak but as far as actual numbers who knows?.........BTW i'm at 75 degrees atm with 73 dewpoint muggy outside....

 

[TW Archive]

smokedevil
Posted 25 April 2011 - 11:26 AM

Too many things could go wrong in trying to predict a number. Then again, if everything comes together like its looking, then look out

 

[TW Archive]

wxfan22
Posted 25 April 2011 - 11:39 AM

How much of a concern will junk convection be for the Tuesday/Wednesday System in regards to instability? On the models it seems like there is going to be nonstop rain/clouds around the midsouth.

 

[TW Archive]

Katrina Runs
Posted 25 April 2011 - 11:57 AM

Has Jim Cantore tweeted where he's headed yet?
Maybe we can distract him AWAY from Tuscaloosa

I went home this weekend to see my parents in Bolton, MS which is 6 miles west of Clinton. Clinton is still a mess. It's unreal how the brick BankPlus was destroyed but literally 3 feet away, flowers are blooming and a metal shed is standing tall. It never fails to amaze me.

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 25 April 2011 - 12:03 AM

Matt Grantham, on 24 April 2011 - 11:40 PM, said:

I'd say the northern half of the state has the highest threat where the highest shear overlaps the lowest LCL heights.

Thanks Matt