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Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

weatherguy
Posted 25 April 2011 - 12:05 AM

Wow and to add 00z GFS EHI is 7.4 for here in NW AL at 1pm Wed.
Median 12z SREF EHI is still significant at 3.38 and could likely come way up as we get closer (when members start to agree) (of course that's if nothing drastically changes the setup).

.
Edited by weatherguy, 25 April 2011 - 12:22 AM.

 
TimHSV
Posted 25 April 2011 - 12:10 PM

This is really ominous concerning the lowest level winds fields from KJAN this moning...


Edited...

MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING ALL
NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE SHEAR...BOTH LOW LEVEL
AND DEEP LAYER...WILL BE VERY STRONG. 0-1KM SRH LOOKS TO BE 400
M2/S2 OR HIGHER WITH MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 80-95 KTS! THIS
WILL BE AN EXTREMELY BAD COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND HELICITY AND ANY
DISCRETE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TYPE
SVR. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL...DMG WIND. THE ENVIRONMENT...ALONG WITH THE MODELS...ARE
ALL INDICATING THAT ONLY 1 OR 2 STORMS MAY EXIST IN OUR AREA. IF THIS
OCCURS IT WOULD NOT BE GOOD AS SUCH A LONE STORM OR TWO WILL HAVE ALL
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS GOING FOR IT. THIS TIMING ON THIS IS QUITE
EXTENDED AND BASICALLY COVERS ALL OF TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AS FOR
LOCATION...IT AGAIN SEEMS THAT AREAS ALONG AND N OF I-20 WILL HAVE
THE MAIN RISK. THIS RISK LOOKS TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE NE QUAD OF
THE CWA BY MIDDAY WED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
 
trency911
Posted 25 April 2011 - 12:38 PM

New Day 2 has been pushed further N and E. Now into all of N MS and just into NW AL.
day2otlk201104251730prt.gif
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 12:48 AM

we are getting pretty close as far as my area is concerned in fact 24 hours from now i should be in the thick of it,i doubt any significant
model changes will occur in fact our local mets said tonight into tuesday could be bad with the worst on tuesday....into early wensday morning...
 
bingcrosbyb
Posted 25 April 2011 - 01:05 PM

AT 1248 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR BAILEY...OR NEAR COLLIERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
AT 1240 PM A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY LAW ENFORECMENT AT HACKS CROSS
ROAD AND HIGHWAY 385.
 
golf70
Posted 25 April 2011 - 01:52 PM

I know the spc expanded the mod risk further north and east,but does this storm for tues into wednesday have potential for a HIGH RISK to be issued, or no? thanks kevin
 
ZackH
Posted 25 April 2011 - 02:04 PM

golf70, on 25 April 2011 - 01:52 PM, said:

I know the spc expanded the mod risk further north and east,but does this storm for tues into wednesday have potential for a HIGH RISK to be issued, or no? thanks kevin
Click to expand...


It has the potential, of course, but we will probably not see a Day 2 High Risk. There's only ever been one in history. The fact that there is not a High Risk for tomorrow right now doesn't have anything to do with what tomorrow's Day 1 may be.
 
Greg D
Posted 25 April 2011 - 02:12 PM

ZackH, on 25 April 2011 - 02:04 PM, said:

It has the potential, of course, but we will probably not see a Day 2 High Risk. There's only ever been one in history. The fact that there is not a High Risk for tomorrow right now doesn't have anything to do with what tomorrow's Day 1 may be.
Click to expand...

For curiosity's sake, what was that one instance... Inquiring minds want to know
 
AprilA
Posted 25 April 2011 - 02:17 PM

A friend of mine just texted me and said they may have to evacuate due to flooding! They bought our old place right by the levee. It's in Huffman, by Blytheville. My husband said his company has shut down their river port and shut off power to it..I may take a drive over that way and take some pics later..
 
trency911
Posted 25 April 2011 - 02:21 PM

Storms firing in North Georgia a couple of the cells are SVR warned.
 
djbarker
Posted 25 April 2011 - 02:21 PM

Storms firing in North Georgia a couple of the cells are SVR warned.
 
djbarker
Posted 25 April 2011 - 02:37 PM

trency911, on 25 April 2011 - 02:21 PM, said:

Storms firing in North Georgia a couple of the cells are SVR warned.
Click to expand...


Those are more summertime-type pulse severe. Shear and helicity values in GA are almost nil right now.
Edited by djbarker, 25 April 2011 - 02:37 PM.

 
Tyler Penland
Posted 25 April 2011 - 02:38 PM

djbarker, on 25 April 2011 - 02:37 PM, said:

Those are more summertime-type pulse severe. Shear and helicity values in GA are almost nil right now.
Click to expand...


They are. Its hot and muggy up here so they are just pop up and die storms.
Had one Thursday evening as well I believe but it wasn't severe.
Edited by Tyler Penland, 25 April 2011 - 02:39 PM.

 
mbrewer
Posted 25 April 2011 - 03:19 PM

This probably needs to be in a separate topic, but check out Matt Grantham's live stream over at SevereStudios. Very nice funnel or possible tornado visible for a while.

Looks like it was reported as a tornado.
Edited by mbrewer, 25 April 2011 - 03:21 PM.

Michael Brewer
 
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