Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

[TW Archive]

Fred Gossage
Posted 24 April 2011 - 10:43 PM

iceman83, on 24 April 2011 - 10:42 PM, said:

Guys kind of late to the game but what are we looking at in NE Arkanasas the next couple of days? Thanks for any input and stay safe.

Your greatest threat is going to be tomorrow... and then again Tuesday. Tuesday is more questionable because the warm front may manage to stay to your south. If I'm not mistaken, you're either in or just close to a MDT Risk for tomorrow.

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 24 April 2011 - 10:44 PM

Interesting from BNA


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
713 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011/

THINGS WILL REALLY GET TO ROCKIN` AND ROLLIN` ON WEDNESDAY, AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYTEM DEVELOPS OVER ARKANSAS AND LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY BY 00Z/THU. STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE
MID STATE, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. A STRONG
FORECAST 850MB JET, OF 60 TO 65 KTS, COUPLED WITH 0-3KM STM
RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 500 M2/S2 COULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE
BEST POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THAT WE`VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON.
LONG TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
EVENING, EXPECT GENERALLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA FOR LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LARGELY IN THE
60S TO MID 70S AND LOWS WEDNESAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT LARGELY

 

[TW Archive]

iceman83
Posted 24 April 2011 - 10:47 PM

Fred Gossage, on 24 April 2011 - 10:43 PM, said:

Your greatest threat is going to be tomorrow... and then again Tuesday. Tuesday is more questionable because the warm front may manage to stay to your south. If I'm not mistaken, you're either in or just close to a MDT Risk for tomorrow.

Just looked and we are in the MDT risk tomorrow and in the hatched area on Tuesday. Thanks for the information. I will be curious to see new outlooks from SPC tonight.

From MEG's HWO this afternoon:

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AN
ENHANCED RISK OF STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
Edited by iceman83, 24 April 2011 - 10:50 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

ZackH
Posted 24 April 2011 - 10:56 PM

TimHSV, on 24 April 2011 - 10:44 PM, said:

Interesting from BNA


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
713 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011/

THINGS WILL REALLY GET TO ROCKIN` AND ROLLIN` ON WEDNESDAY, AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYTEM DEVELOPS OVER ARKANSAS AND LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY BY 00Z/THU. STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE
MID STATE, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. A STRONG
FORECAST 850MB JET, OF 60 TO 65 KTS, COUPLED WITH 0-3KM STM
RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 500 M2/S2 COULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE
BEST POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THAT WE`VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON.
LONG TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
EVENING, EXPECT GENERALLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA FOR LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LARGELY IN THE
60S TO MID 70S AND LOWS WEDNESAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT LARGELY

That's kind of odd wording to me. You hear isolated tornado language and its usually a small tornado threat but then he says its one of the best chances of isolated tornadoes all season. When I read this, I'm wondering does the forecaster think this could be a big tornado event or just a big severe event with a couple tornadoes here and there? Honestly, the more and more I look at the model trends, the more and more I see this being a big tornado event for Central Tennessee.

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 24 April 2011 - 11:12 PM

LISTEN...kinda indirect for this post.... but very ominious.....WFO KPAH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY NWS recorded conference (minus the dude coughing up a lung)



http://www.kfvs12.com/category/1959...oCatNo=default&clipId=5785125&redirected=true
Edited by TimHSV, 24 April 2011 - 11:14 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

skywatcher22
Posted 24 April 2011 - 11:24 PM

Wow, amazing how the models have trended towards a much higher end event for Wednesday. As Fred has been mentioning, the difference in the forcing forecast yesterday vs today's runs makes things look much worse now.

 

[TW Archive]

KG4GUF
Posted 24 April 2011 - 11:26 PM

Definitely looking like Georgia gets the quiet end of things as it goes linear and the instability peters out through the night. If the NAM can be taken at face-value, the time for the Atlanta area is looking to be 2 A.M. EDT Thursday morning. While I'm certainly not saying we should let our guards down at all, I do think this will mostly be a wind/hail threat for our area.

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 24 April 2011 - 11:30 PM

Matt Grantham, on 24 April 2011 - 11:24 PM, said:

Wow, amazing how the models have trended towards a much higher end event for Wednesday. As Fred has been mentioning, the difference in the forcing forecast yesterday vs today's runs makes things look much worse now.

What areas seem the highest threat to you as of now Matt?

 

[TW Archive]

skywatcher22
Posted 24 April 2011 - 11:40 PM

TimHSV, on 24 April 2011 - 11:30 PM, said:

What areas seem the highest threat to you as of now Matt?

I'd say the northern half of the state has the highest threat where the highest shear overlaps the lowest LCL heights.

 

[TW Archive]

skywatcher22
Posted 24 April 2011 - 11:43 PM

Shear vectors like these scream supercells.

 

[TW Archive]

ARCC
Posted 24 April 2011 - 11:52 PM

0z GFS also has Cape values of 2000+ over most of central AL, with 3000 values over west AL/east MS.

 

[TW Archive]

Tyler Penland
Posted 24 April 2011 - 11:59 PM

KG4GUF, on 24 April 2011 - 11:26 PM, said:

Definitely looking like Georgia gets the quiet end of things as it goes linear and the instability peters out through the night. If the NAM can be taken at face-value, the time for the Atlanta area is looking to be 2 A.M. EDT Thursday morning. While I'm certainly not saying we should let our guards down at all, I do think this will mostly be a wind/hail threat for our area.

Thats how it almost always is. Especially up here.

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV

Posted 25 April 2011 - 01:32 AM

I have emphasized the severe probabilities graphic from SPC





DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN
TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
EASTERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHEAST/E COAST STATES TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...AS ONE SHORTER-WAVELENGTH FEATURE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND A SECOND DIGS SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
SWWD INTO N TX...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION -- INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK FOCUSED FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
REGION.

...ARKLATEX REGION ENEWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
COMPLEX -- BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/DANGEROUS -- SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT IS UNFOLDING FOR THIS AREA FOR DAY 2 /TUE. AND EARLY WED./.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHIFTING
EWD/ENEWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS ALONG WITH ONGOING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
GREATER SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS REGION HOWEVER WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
THE DAY...AS AN INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEPARTING NEWD IS FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND/DIGGING FEATURE SHIFTING QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

AS THIS OCCURS...BACKING/INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD IS
FORECAST...WITH A 70-PLUS KT LOW-LEVEL JET TO SHIFT EWD FROM NE TX
ACROSS AR/LA DURING THE EVENING...BENEATH MID-LEVEL WLYS INCREASING
TO 70 TO 80 KT.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS N TX AND AR TOWARD THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE TX AND QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES EXPECTED. A SUBSTANTIAL
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- SPREADING ACROSS NRN
LA/AR AND THEN INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS LATE. ALONG WITH TORNADO
POTENTIAL...DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR E
AS MIDDLE TN/NRN AR/NWRN GA BY 27/12Z.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THIS AREA FOCUSING LARGE-SCALE UVV ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX. WHILE AFTERNOON
HEATING MAY BE HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD
COVER...LOCAL AREAS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- AS FAR NE AS
PA AND NY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WITH A STRONG SWLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA
/LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM 50 TO 65 KT IN THE 850 TO 500 MB
LAYER/...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...ALONG WITH
LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS. ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD WITH TIME AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY ADVANCES...WITH SOME THREAT LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO NY/PA/WV.

...CAROLINAS/VA...
WEAK SHORT-WAVE FEATURES SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION --
EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD AHEAD ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE
LARGE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH -- WILL SUPPORT A BROAD ZONE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH HEATING OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OCCURING THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY
WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE/VEERING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT -- TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING THREATS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING
MECHANISM...WITH MAINTAIN ONLY 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ATTM --
GIVEN THE BROAD/UNFOCUSED THREAT AREA.

..GOSS.. 04/25/2011
Edited by andyhb, 28 December 2012 - 04:40 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

Harlequhn_Boy
Posted 25 April 2011 - 01:55 AM

There's also a MOD for today as well. Weird to be in a MOD for two different days.

 

[TW Archive]

weatherguy
Posted 25 April 2011 - 02:33 AM

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE MID SOUTH REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT S OF THE
MAIN GREAT LAKES REGION LOW. THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP FAVORS
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL E OF THE MS VALLEY.

...PA/NW SSWWD TO THE GULF COAST...
YET ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY VERY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DAY 3 /WED. AND EARLY THU. APR. 27 AND 28/ -- WITH ELEVATED
THREAT FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK EVIDENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AS THE POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. WHILE AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW
SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE KY/TN
VICINITY...WITH LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE FLOW VEERING/INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE MOST FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG SHEAR...FOCUSED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND ANTICIPATED LACK OF APPRECIABLE PRIOR
CONVECTION INDICATES A RELATIVELY HIGH-CONFIDENCE AREA OF
CONCENTRATED SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE MODERATE RISK FORECAST ATTM --
INDICATIVE OF OUTBREAK POTENTIAL.




New day 3:

 

[TW Archive]

weatherguy
Posted 25 April 2011 - 03:17 AM

I combined all three days, it's a big area:

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 04:46 AM

nothing at all "unusual" about this ive seen moderate risks two days in a row before the only thing is they usually occur on the plains and not in Dixie Alley area....anyways the day 2 convective says it all a potentially life threatening event is about to unfold across the midsouth
it may well be as serious as the carolinas event.....For Tuesday it won't suprise me if the moderate risk becomes a high risk in later updates.
Edited by mwbwhorton, 25 April 2011 - 04:58 AM.

 

[TW Archive]

StormNine59
Posted 25 April 2011 - 06:37 AM

Quote

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
606 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
606 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY OR
TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
DEADLY LIGHTNING. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE QUAD STATE REGION.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT

http://http//WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT APPEARS THERE MAY
BE A BREAK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...BRINGING
5 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LAST FRIDAY INTO THE 10 TO 15 INCH
RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME
RIVER CRESTS MAY CHALLENGE HISTORICAL VALUES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT

http://http//WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED EACH DAY FROM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. SPOTTERS SHOULD ALSO REPORT ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS OR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THEY ENCOUNTER DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


$$

The PDS Hazardous Weather Outlook.

 

[TW Archive]

sutton82
Posted 25 April 2011 - 06:48 AM

I don't think I've ever seen a MOD for all 3 days before.

 

[TW Archive]

trency911
Posted 25 April 2011 - 07:47 AM

FFC: Edited for emphasis.

Quote

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 AM EDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUE-WED. VOLATILE SITUATION DEVELOPING
THAT WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA.
THE PRIMARY AFFECT OF THIS ON THE FFC CWA WILL BE
TUE-WED...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF TWO TO POTENTIALLY THREE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST TWO WILL IMPACT MAINLY NW/NC GA...THE THIRD
WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE FIRST AND LEAST DEFINITE ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUE AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORT WAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE
PARENT UPPER LOW. ECMWF/GFS BOTH HINT AT A REMNANT/POSSIBLY
REGENERATING SQUALL LINE REACHING THE NW PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING TUE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CAPE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE IN THE NW/NC AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A BIGGER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN NW/NC
GA COMES EARLY WED AS THE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TN/MS/AL. A SEVERE QLCS IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING
OVERNIGHT TUE...APPROACHING NW/NC GA BY OR BEFORE 12Z...CONTINUING
INTO MID-MORNING. VERY HIGH SHEAR...WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50KTS
AND UNUSUALLY HIGH CAPE FOR EARLY MORNING...ON THE ORDER OF 2000
J/KG...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NW GA ACCOMPANYING THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. A SEVERE QLCS IS LIKELY...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
THE FINAL UPPER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
INTO THE PARENT LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THE DEGREE OF EARLY
MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTAMINATION WILL LARGELY PLAY INTO THE
DEGREE OF SEVERITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY THE MORNING
ACTIVITY...AND WITH EXTREME SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY.
FINALLY...THERE WILL ALSO BE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NW/NC
GA...AS THESE REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE SAME
REGION. STREAMS/CREEKS IN THIS REGION ARE HIGH FROM RECENT PREVIOUS
EVENTS. AT THIS POINT...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST
NW OF THE CWA...BUT RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES NW GA OVER THE 2-DAY
PERIOD WILL AT A MINIMUM RESULT IN SOME RIVER FLOODING. AN ESF WILL
BE ISSUED THIS MORNING TO ADDRESS THIS SITUATION.