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Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

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Harlequhn_Boy
Posted 24 April 2011 - 08:07 PM

trency911, on 24 April 2011 - 08:02 PM, said:

11/2002 This says it all in my opinion.
Note: These weren't all the tornadoes just those rated strong.Hereis total reports off SPC page.


All of the red lines also aren't tornadoes. Some of them are mesocyclone tracks...

I'm becoming increasingly concerned tomorrow about AR. My worries about a major tornado outbreak over the Mid South has been tempered some, but I and many others still seem to have legitimate concerns. The dual concern of historic flooding and long duration severe weather outbreak feels like the buildup to something big...
 

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Crimsoncutie07
Posted 24 April 2011 - 08:09 PM

Fred Gossage, on 24 April 2011 - 06:51 PM, said:

...And look at two of the dates being thrown around... 00Z 11/11/2002 and 00Z 11/16/1989.


Hi all, loooooong time lurker :) but only due to the lack of having anything important to add to the conversation. Had a question about the 11/16/89 date mentioned above, the Huntsville Tornado was on the 15th...is the analog actually for the part of the system that produced the Coldenham disaster on the 16th? Thanks and I'll go back to being quiet :$
 

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rlsrlj
Posted 24 April 2011 - 08:10 PM

Fred Gossage, on 24 April 2011 - 08:02 PM, said:

It seems that just happens to be the closest analogs in the system. The latest run has also triggered on January 24, 1997 as another analog. That was the F2 that hit the Food World in the Tuscaloosa area, and there was an F4 in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. Seeing the system pick kinematic analogs from November - January... but in the presence of late April thermodynamics... is rather unsettling.


I agree Fred...one thing about cool season events is that there usually good low-level and mid-level turning...as you said, combine that with April thermo points to a dangerous situation. I really think whatever is leftover from Thu night will be key to the mesoscale setup. Could mean the difference between a minor or very significant event.
 

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Fred Gossage
Posted 24 April 2011 - 08:10 PM

Crimsoncutie07, on 24 April 2011 - 08:09 PM, said:

Hi all, loooooong time lurker but only due to the lack of having anything important to add to the conversation. Had a question about the 11/16/89 date mentioned above, the Huntsville Tornado was on the 15th...is the analog actually for the part of the system that produced the Coldenham disaster on the 16th? Thanks and I'll go back to being quiet


The timeframe is for 00Z 11/16/89. That is Zulu time. That would translate to the early evening of 11/15/89 in Alabama.
 

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Crimsoncutie07
Posted 24 April 2011 - 08:12 PM

Fred Gossage, on 24 April 2011 - 08:10 PM, said:

The timeframe is for 00Z 11/16/89. That is Zulu time. That would translate to the early evening of 11/15/89 in Alabama.


Ahhh I see, and I thought about that after I pressed "enter". See, THIS is why I've stayed quiet so long! Thanks for the patient answer!
 

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Psalm 148:8
Posted 24 April 2011 - 08:13 PM

Great job from Kevin out of BMX....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
624 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS IN COMPLETE CONTROL TODAY...AS A LOT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SETS UP IN A CONTINUES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FASHION.
THIS OVERALL TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND BUILD FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE
ACTUALLY MAY BE A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO MARK ITS BEGINNING RETREAT.

THEN ALL EYES WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ADMITTEDLY...I HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED TO COME UP WITH WHAT I FEEL
IS A DECENT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY. MY BIGGEST BEEF IS
THE ABSENCE OF WIND SHEAR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...A DECENT
INFLUX STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS RAPID CHANGE LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CWA COUNTIES AS THE JET MAX WITH
THE FIRST WAVE ACCELERATES NORTHWARD...WHERE WE MAY CATCH THE TAIL
END. I STILL WANT TO HOLD BACK WITH SOME LOWER PROBS FOR LATE
TUESDAY...BUT I AM GETTING THE FEELING THAT WITH MOST FOLKS
FOCUSING ON WED AFT...THAT THEY MAY GET A SURPRISE FROM STORMS
THAT FORM UPSTREAM AND HOLD TOGETHER ALONG THE HIGHER SHEAR AXIS
AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE STATE LINE. INSTABILITY LOOKS
INCREDIBLY HIGH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BUFFER SOUNDINGS
SHOWING NEARLY 4000 J/KG BY 18Z AT TCL. YES...THOSE ARE
UNREALISTIC AS THE DEWPOINTS SPIRAL WAY TOO HIGH...BUT EVEN
MODIFIED THEY DO MAINTAIN AROUND 3000 JOULES. THE SHEAR
PROFILES...AGAIN INCREASING...SHOW THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK TO INCREASE
FROM 35 KTS AT 18Z TO NEARLY 60 KTS BY MIDNIGHT. THAT IS ENOUGH TO
PUT THE HWO INTO A TOR CATEGORY...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY...WE WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE AS ANOTHER DECENT COLD CORE
SPOKE DIGS WAY SOUTH AND QUICKLY NEGATIVE TILTS TO OUR NORTHWEST.
AS IT DOES SO...THE HEIGHT FALLS QUICKLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW FROM
LITTLE ROCK TO DETROIT. HERE IN LIES THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT INTO EXACTLY HOW LOW WE WILL GO. I`VE SEEN EVERYTHING
FROM 996 TO 985...AND ALL NUMBERS IN BETWEEN. THIS WILL MAKE AN
OBVIOUS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND FIELDS...IN
PARTICULAR...THE LOWEST 1 KM HODOGRAPH TURN. DON`T WANT TO GET
INTO THAT MUCH MESOSCALE THIS EARLY...BUT IT IS A LITTLE TROUBLING
TO HAVE THAT MUCH VARIATION AS WE ARE GETTING WITHIN THE 3 DAY
window. REGARDLESS...I AM STILL IMPRESSED WITH THE 0 TO 6 KM AND 0
TO 8 KM BULK SHEAR SPEED AND VECTOR ORIENTATION. IT STILL SHOWS
ISOLATE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL FAVORABLY INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I65...BUT DOES HINT AT QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING AND BECOMING COLD POOL DOMINATED AS IT ACCELERATES
ACROSS THE STATE. IN FACT...ALABAMA WILL LIKELY BE THE TRANSITION
STATE FROM CELLULAR TO LINEAR AS THE BULK SHEAR VECTORS BACK WITH
TIME TO BECOME INCREASING PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT. IN THE
MEAN TIME...THE CAPE PROFILES CONTINUE TO IMPRESS...AND AM
STARTING TO SEE A BREAK DOWN OF THE CAP EVEN EARLIER. YESTERDAY
WESTERN CWA SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING 100F DEGREE PARCELS TO RISE
UNINHIBITED...TODAY IT IS MORE AROUND 91F...SO THAT IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DOWN TO AROUND -40 J/KG CIN. THIS COULD MEAN AN
EARLIER START TIME...SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT. LAST PIECE
OF THE PUZZLE WILL BE HOW EXACTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EITHER
WORK TOGETHER OR AGAINST EACH OTHER. IN OTHER WORDS...IS THERE
GOING TO BE ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERY/CLOUDY WEATHER TO BEGIN THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...AND IF SO WHERE AND HOW MUCH...HOW DOES THAT EFFECT
PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES? WHAT ABOUT ANVIL CONTAMINATION
AND RELATIVE SURFACE HEATING? LOW LEVEL LEFTOVER COLD POOL
BOUNDARIES? SO...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT
BORDER ON EXTREMELY FAVORABLE...THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF MESOSCALE
DETAILS YET TO BE SEEN THAT CAN REALLY TURN THIS EVENT FROM
MARGINAL TO SIGNIFICANT OR MARGINAL TO WEAK. STAY TUNED...
17/KLAWS
 

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weatherguy
Posted 24 April 2011 - 08:41 PM

The numbers of the SREF Median Significant Tornado Parameter are significant. They could easily go up also being this is 72 hours out (if nothing drastic changes). I think this is the highest I've seen them all year in AL, especially that many hours out.
sigt1.jpg

sigt2.jpg
 

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Tyler Penland
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:04 PM

Fred Gossage, on 24 April 2011 - 06:51 PM, said:

...And look at two of the dates being thrown around... 00Z 11/11/2002 and 00Z 11/16/1989.


Both those events dropped a tornado near me. 1 F2 and one F3.
 

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TimHSV
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:23 PM

This SIGTOR has increased over our areas to the west.
SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f057.gif
 

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tennessee storm chaser
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:28 PM

TimHSV, on 24 April 2011 - 09:23 PM, said:

This SIGTOR has increased over our areas to the west.



yep, watching the 0z name at 48 hrs. winds at 700mb and 850 look directional,
 

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mwbwhorton
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:30 PM

TimHSV, on 24 April 2011 - 09:23 PM, said:

This SIGTOR has increased over our areas to the west.



Haven't seen those type of numbers here in ne Louisiana in a while needless to say our local tv mets are screaming tornado outbreak if only to get poeple aware that Tuesday will likely be dangerous....i feel a moderate risk is likely here with a slight chance of an upgrade to high by tommorrow night if the models persist on this.
Edited by mwbwhorton, 24 April 2011 - 09:34 PM.

 

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Taylor Campbell
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:36 PM

"gulp" at today's model runs. going to be a lot of model madness with this event, but one thing for sure we're going to get a terrible event with these jet and thermo dynamics coming together like they are expected.

Edited by TaylorCampbell, 24 April 2011 - 09:42 PM.

 

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tennessee storm chaser
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:36 PM

yep, i believe its shaping up to be asleepless night for folks across west, tn. over night tuesday. i will be ready for this...
 

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Pastor of Muppets
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:36 PM

Fred Gossage, on 24 April 2011 - 08:10 PM, said:

The timeframe is for 00Z 11/16/89. That is Zulu time. That would translate to the early evening of 11/15/89 in Alabama.


To confuse things even more, the tornado was first reported on the ground about 4:30pm on the 15th, or 2230GMT, or 90 minutes before 0z, where the date would change to 11/16/89 for the purposes of this discussion.
 

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tennessee storm chaser
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:42 PM

WOW at oz nam model 66hrs.
 

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kbh_81
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:43 PM

tennessee storm chaser, on 24 April 2011 - 09:42 PM, said:

WOW at oz nam model 66hrs.

what is it showing?
 

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tennessee storm chaser
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:48 PM

kbh_81, on 24 April 2011 - 09:43 PM, said:

what is it showing?

super cells forming back across most of the midsouth area. followed by what looks like a mean squall with embeded super cells.
 

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smokedevil
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:52 PM

SPC is already mentioning a Higher risk may be needed for ark, and surrounding areas, on tuesday.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT FOCUSED ON AR AND VICINITY.
GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...UPGRADE TO HIGHER CATEGORY RISK APPEARS
LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS.
Edited by smokedevil, 24 April 2011 - 09:52 PM.

 

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mwbwhorton
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:57 PM

Ok so high risk is being mentioned never the less the weather nerd in me is excited yet im also feeling a slight knot in my stomach as i know what that actually means
 

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ARCC
Posted 24 April 2011 - 09:58 PM

Uh oh, big change on the NAM, forms a secondary slp behind the main one. Could be a huge concern if it keeps sfc winds backed longer.
 
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