KevinH
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Here is the schedule:
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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
KevinH
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This is absolutely beautiful for us visual learners.
A had a basic understanding of hoods a while ago but forgot everything. This animation is simple AND color coded lol
KevinH
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Bulkshear
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April looks subdued after you get past the very beginning of the month bud
Cyclonic Paracosm
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If you read the last sentence it says a mdt may be required
GA Stormchaser
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I would say given how March has progressed, I wouldn’t be downplaying the bulk of April just yet.
I don’t think we can make any sort of statement, one way or the other, on which way April will go this far out. After the 3/14 outbreak, it looked quiet on the models for a few weeks, so it really just depends. Especially if that signature comes back through.
Bulkshear
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Well granted I’m not a fan of the guy but Dr. Reed agrees. The pattern shifts to a NW flow which isn’t conducive for severe weather for us. What basis are you making that statement on? Mine is based off computer model data, and another meteorologist.
LoopingHodos
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Hail must be a very real threat with this one. I have pulled soundings on multiple models in locations from Nashville to Little Rock, Evansville to Tupelo and the analogs I’m getting are 2.75” to 5” hail pretty consistently.
Of course I don’t BELIEVE that is the ceiling for this event (don’t prove me wrong), but I also can’t remember pulling some of these numbers in this geography before.
Of course I don’t BELIEVE that is the ceiling for this event (don’t prove me wrong), but I also can’t remember pulling some of these numbers in this geography before.
Care to post that over in the Severe Wx 2025 thread?
UpperLevelLOL
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Man I hope tonight’s action produces lots of rain for central and northern OK, we badly need it.
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The euro continues to stick with its guns on a more isolated line of supercells for Mississippi and Alabama.
GA Stormchaser
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you got me “bud”. Mine is based off of living thru both the April 3, 74 and the April 27, 2011 outbreaks on the ground in Alabama.
Bulkshear
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How does it look for TN? I don’t have access to the 6z.
tennessee storm chaser
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I can see perhaps a week or so break from this pattern , but this pattern is far from over , It will return mid April with Avenge…..
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It's isolated as well, the EURO has been very consistent on more discrete/semi discreet supercells. Just a few mesoscale feature shifts away from a outbreak in Mississippi and Alabama.
Bulkshear
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The condescension from the beginning isn’t appreciated. I used “bud” because there was no basis for his statement. You assume I don’t have any experience. How does your experience override a NW flow pattern that is coming in the middle to late April? The models are on board with this idea.
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Guys can we transfer the pattern change talk to the severe 2025 thread. This thread doesn't need to get clogged up with it. A very substantial severe threat is on the horizon. Let's get through the next 7-8 days and then we can look at the patterns.
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After looking at SPC/NWS Jackson/Memphis/Birmingham/Huntsville discussions, all mention supercell potential regardless of MCS/squall line. The 3km NAM and 12z HRRR both still have a lack of convection by 7pm Sunday. The only models that shows a solid squall line is the 6z 3km NAM and 6z NAM. So we'll see about that as I'm not totally convinced we'll see a solid line of storms. Now, about cloud cover issues. We get this uncertainty nearly every outbreak. Simple answer is that will have to be watched and how that trends the day of on that one. I've seen where we did have cloud cover issues and still was a significant day. Continue and Good Morning to all!
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12z Hrrr is a Severe/tornado outbreak over northeast Arkansas/southeast Missouri and West Tennessee.