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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

If the trough trends into more favorable geometry and timing, this may be another headliner.

I’m sure as the models go back and forth, flip and flop like they do, we will do our same wash cycle as last event LOL. Super Outbreak 3 to just a wind event and some showers and anything in between. Just like last time though, @JPWX and @Clancy will be there to (rightfully I might add) remind us to stop hanging onto each operational run and look at the synoptic pattern as a whole.
 
Nope! Nope! Stay away! No more headliners!

Climate Change Summer GIF by CTV Comedy Channel


Just no more, please.
 
Hoo boy...My 35th birthday will be on Saturday, and that looks to be Day 1 of this potential outbreak/sequence. Things look to be getting rather...interesting...(hopefully not in the "Chinese curse" sense, knock on wood!).
 
This is definitely shaping up to be a very impactful severe weather season. I do think some corners will be trimmed from this very large 15% area, but if it comes to fruition, it'll be quite a widespread event
 
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CIPS very much on board with this widespread threat at the end of the month. Still a lot to parse out, but some large-scale favorable conditions are lining up for this period.
1742830210952.png1742830213721.png
 
UpperLevelLOL said:
Oh jeez, here we go again. Though this seems more widespread and doesn't have the potential ceiling as a couple weeks ago. Course, a lot can change in the next 7 days of model runs.
Click to expand...
This has high calling potential without a doubt …. Weather it pans out the way some ensembles showing , another story …. SPC don’t put out 7 day threat for something minor…
 
The warm sector that gets set up on the 0z Euro that extends to basically all of the beginning of April is super impressive, and highly worrisome if it comes to fruition, for obvious reasons. I don't think the GFS is nearly as potent as this.

For this upcoming threat:
Screenshot 2025-03-24 at 11.36.07 AM.png


And then, for 4/4 - 4/5 (Obviously will change, but goodness gracious):
Screenshot 2025-03-24 at 11.36.37 AM.png
 
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