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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

While the moisture is expansive, it's also deep and rich Sunday afternoon. Very impressive lapse rates as well. Kinematics will probably be the biggest question mark; they're definitely enough but not extraordinary, at least taken verbatim from the 12Z GFS. That said, the thermodynamic environment will be juiced for this event across the Deep South, so there's zero questions about that end of things.
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Clancy said:
While the moisture is expansive, it's also deep and rich Sunday afternoon. Very impressive lapse rates as well. Kinematics will probably be the biggest question mark; they're definitely enough but not extraordinary, at least taken verbatim from the 12Z GFS. That said, the thermodynamic environment will be juiced for this event across the Deep South, so there's zero questions about that end of things.
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I thought with the 1000-1002mb trailer low kinematics would be better.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
when you say weird, are you referring to the zonal aspect of this event? Undercooked on thermos?
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Yeah; in previous runs it basically had a trough ejecting from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast, which was even weirder. Undercooked in terms of kinematics; 3/15 also looked fairly unimpressive kinematics-wise until the models locked in on the secondary low and LLJ.
 
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Clancy said:
Yeah; in previous runs it basically had a trough ejecting from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast, which was even weirder. Undercooked in terms of kinematics; 3/15 also looked fairly unimpressive kinematics-wise until the models locked in on the secondary low and LLJ.
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Very intriguing what the models are portraying. You’re usually in a surplus supply of kinematics around this time of year but not in moisture and thermodynamics. This is flipped around. Like you said, it’s going to take a bit for the models to lock in on any Lows and attendant LLJs.
 
Clancy said:
Yeah; in previous runs it basically had a trough ejecting from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast, which was even weirder. Undercooked in terms of kinematics; 3/15 also looked fairly unimpressive kinematics-wise until the models locked in on the secondary low and LLJ.
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I'll have to check the cips analogs later too see similar events. I'm curious to check it out.


Pulled up the list. Screenshot_2025-03-24-14-13-35-86_f9ee0578fe1cc94de7482bd41accb329.jpg
 
Hot off the presses, my WRF-ARW model run. It is centered on Nashville, TN and uses 06Z GFS initial conditions. It's at 9 km resolution, so somewhat in between the HRRR and GFS.



First off, look at that huge moist warm sector! Wow! You can see as the front moves through, the model is picking up on 30-50 mph winds moving through Tennessee.

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Let's look at the radar. Here's a few static images showcasing a round of discrete cells followed by a more semi-linear mode.

1742842634833.png

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For severe metrics, here's Surface Based CAPE, showing an area of MS/AL/TN with highly elevated storm fuel:

1742842831253.png



And the approximate STP (may be a bit overdone, but it's a good approximation):

1742843426213.png
 
ColdFront said:
Very intriguing what the models are portraying. You’re usually in a surplus supply of kinematics around this time of year but not in moisture and thermodynamics. This is flipped around. Like you said, it’s going to take a bit for the models to lock in on any Lows and attendant LLJs.
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I'm usually pretty wary of events that look impressive thermodynamically but not so much kinematically. That said, it's only so useful to speculate about it at this range, with model spread so high.
 
wx_guy said:
Hot off the presses, my WRF-ARW model run. It is centered on Nashville, TN and uses 06Z GFS initial conditions. It's at 9 km resolution, so somewhat in between the HRRR and GFS.



First off, look at that huge moist warm sector! Wow! You can see as the front moves through, the model is picking up on 30-50 mph winds moving through Tennessee.

View attachment 37199
View attachment 37201


Let's look at the radar. Here's a few static images showcasing a round of discrete cells followed by a more semi-linear mode.

View attachment 37202

View attachment 37203

View attachment 37204

For severe metrics, here's Surface Based CAPE, showing an area of MS/AL/TN with highly elevated storm fuel:

View attachment 37205



And the approximate STP (may be a bit overdone, but it's a good approximation):

View attachment 37206
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Just my two cents, but I personally believe there's no point in sharing that STP plot if the calculation is uncertain. It looks drastically overcooked to me.
 

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Oh man, those CAPE values are extremely high for being this far out. Hopefully that downtrends a bit, but there aren't any systems expected to clear any of it out before the weekend right?

Also, I've been noticing the GFS seems to overestimate kinematics, and the Euro underestimates with these systems, is that right? Which one would you guys say did a better job verifying with the last system? I feel like I've mostly been seeing a preference towards the Euro from meteorologists, and the GFS is viewed as more of a hype machine? If the Euro doesn't see much of a threat yet maybe it's a good sign.
 
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