Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

[jiharris0220]

Quite the helpful 3d animation by Brandt on how hodographs are structured in soundings for beginners.

 

[Muwx]

Whens the update coming out for day 2? Considering staying up to see what it looks like.

Still another 90 minutes away

 

[Kds86z]

Whens the update coming out for day 2? Considering staying up to see what it looks like.

2-230am est sir @UncleJuJu98

 

[OhOkayThen]

Quite the helpful 3d animation by Brandt on how hodographs are structured in soundings for beginners.

Was just talking to a fellow chaser friend of mine about how Red River Valley outbreak keeps showing up on hodo analogs for this event. So a Wichita Falls guy commenting about hodos seems like a sign. Hopefully not.

 

[Kds86z]

2-230am est sir @UncleJuJu98

I’ll be up for it

 

[Maxis_s]

Quite the helpful 3d animation by Brandt on how hodographs are structured in soundings for beginners.

I might make an interactive 3d hodograph visualizer at some point because it really helps shoe what hodographs actually mean.

 

[cg9450]

I’ll be up for it

I’m kinda, almost, terrified.

 

[Brice W]

I’m kinda, almost, terrified.

Definitely gonna see a moderate. That wording is too extreme for it not to be.

 

[Kds86z]

Definitely gonna see a moderate. That wording is too extreme for it not to be.

About to find out… @Brice W. Hanging on to see before I sleep lol

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Ummm running little late

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Something is up ….lol

 

[Kds86z]

Well hello, you look familiar…

Still differences between models on widespread convection etc for a MDT

Now to bed…

 

[OhOkayThen]

SPC maintains ENH for Sunday, essentially stating RAP spooked them with widespread daytime convection. Sounds like next update a MDT would definitely be in play though.

A monster 10% hatched TOR on D2 doesn't usually stay in the ENH category for long.

 

[Brice W]

Oop I was wrong, but a good call though. Still too much uncertainty with models.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

SPC maintains ENH for Sunday, essentially stating RAP spooked them with widespread daytime convection. Sounds like next update a MDT would definitely be in play though.

A monster 10% hatched TOR on D2 doesn't usually stay in the ENH category.

Yeah that’s quiet a large 10 percent hatched tornado for sure .

 

[LoopingHodos]

Interested to see how the HRRR treats morning convection and OFB. This might be the tie breaker. Should have something somewhat soon.

 

[OhOkayThen]

HRRR with an uptrend and much less convection from 7am-3pm compared to 00z. Developing a round of supercells around 4pm ahead of the main round.

 

[OhOkayThen]

NWS Paducah believes the odds for widespread daytime convection that would decrease instability is very low Sunday (with even some sun potential at times) and they believe the risk for a Moderate upgrade is "very real".

 

[KevinH]

Soooooooo…… just wanted to point this out

D2 (Sun, 3/30):


D5 (Wed, 4/2):


REALLY?!?!

 

[KevinH]

It seems like that March has been very active over the past 4 or so years. 2021, 2022, 2023, and now 2025.

March 2021....139 tornadoes
March 2022....234 tornadoes
March 2023....197 tornadoes
March 2024....55 tornadoes
March 2025....166 tornadoes*

*There will probably be significantly more tornadoes as we wrap up March.

Wait until April