Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

[UncleJuJu98]

00z Nam looks dangerous for Miss/AL .watching future runs too see if it becomes a bit more isolated on the convection; if that happens it could be nasty.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Mid 60’s to 70 dew points, sufficient shear, what could go wrong? Seriously though do you think the cap will hold or is this looking more ominous

Most Nws discussion seems cap breaks … due steep
Lapse rates just matter when it breaks

 

[Maxis_s]

Sure, just show a semi-discrete/fully discrete mode at 03z. Why not?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Sounding over central Alabama early Monday morning. Poor surface lapse rates but other than that a decent sounding. (Get isolated or semi isolated storms in that setting and your gunna have some issues.)

 

[andyhb]

00z NAM shows what would likely be a tornado outbreak Sunday evening/overnight from central IL and IN southward to E AR, MS, and AL. Dangerous looking surge in the parameter space happens post-00z along the LLJ axis with mid-upper 60s dewpoints and steep mid level lapse rates. Also shows a very discrete storm mode which makes sense given the relatively subtle nature of the forcing.

 

[Kds86z]

00z NAM shows what would likely be a tornado outbreak Sunday evening/overnight from central IL and IN southward to E AR, MS, and AL. Dangerous looking surge in the parameter space happens post-00z along the LLJ axis with mid-upper 60s dewpoints and steep mid level lapse rates. Also shows a very discrete storm mode which makes sense given the relatively subtle nature of the forcing.

Oof… @andyhb has spoken. Listen up

 

[Clancy]

That I'm able to see the discrete depiction of convection at CONUS-level on the 00Z NAM is... suboptimal.

 

[Kds86z]

00z NAM shows what would likely be a tornado outbreak Sunday evening/overnight from central IL and IN southward to E AR, MS, and AL. Dangerous looking surge in the parameter space happens post-00z along the LLJ axis with mid-upper 60s dewpoints and steep mid level lapse rates. Also shows a very discrete storm mode which makes sense given the relatively subtle nature of the forcing.

Hoping for not another nocturnal tornado outbreak. They don’t end well…

 

[LoopingHodos]

This is really the first run that has shifted somewhat significantly NW. For the more experienced folks, do you expect this to be an outlier or do you envision a return to previous high level storm placement in the AR/TN/MS/AL area as the new model runs come online?

 

[JPWX]

This is really the first run that has shifted somewhat significantly NW. For the more experienced folks, do you expect this to be an outlier or do you envision a return to previous high level storm placement in the AR/TN/MS/AL area as the new model runs come online?

In general, this is gonna be a widespread event. So while the placement of high end storm potential is still in flux, I can imagine a Level 4 Moderate Risk from Illinois down into Arkansas, TN, MS, and Alabama. A bit like we saw with the March 14th event.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

It seems like that March has been very active over the past 4 or so years. 2021, 2022, 2023, and now 2025.

March 2021....139 tornadoes
March 2022....234 tornadoes
March 2023....197 tornadoes
March 2024....55 tornadoes
March 2025....166 tornadoes*

*There will probably be significantly more tornadoes as we wrap up March.

 

[Kds86z]

It seems like that March has been very active over the past 4 or so years. 2021, 2022, 2023, and now 2025.

Yeah 2024 took a vacay from it lol

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Yeah 2024 took a vacay from it lol

Yeah, it sure did.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah 2024 took a vacay from it lol

Then made up for it in April-May.

 

[Sky_I565]

3:00 A.M./ Lawerence Co. TN./ and the NAM shows fairly substantial parmeters this run. 0-1km at 320 SRH and 3D Cape at 183 would be significant if it was to verify and the surface winds were to back more IMO. ML Cape at 2272 and a Td at 67F at that time of the night raises a concern.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

3:00 A.M./ Lawerence Co. TN./ and the NAM shows fairly substantial parmeters this run. 0-1km at 320 SRH and 3D Cape at 183 would be significant if it was to verify and the surface winds were to back more IMO. ML Cape at 2272 and a Td at 67F at that time of the night raises a concern.


View attachment 37605

Impressive sounding, But when you see the red lines like that on the left thats indicative of a contaminated sounding means the enviroment may not be entirely accurate from that sounding.

 

[Kds86z]

Then made up for it in April-May.

Exactly! Lol. Just a tad @CheeselandSkies

 

[Sky_I565]

Impressive sounding, But when you see the red lines like that on the left thats indicative of a contaminated sounding means the enviroment may not be entirely accurate from that sounding.

Yes and you are correct. My overlooking on that.

 

[jiharris0220]

3:00 A.M./ Lawerence Co. TN./ and the NAM shows fairly substantial parmeters this run. 0-1km at 320 SRH and 3D Cape at 183 would be significant if it was to verify and the surface winds were to back more IMO. ML Cape at 2272 and a Td at 67F at that time of the night raises a concern.


View attachment 37605

This sounding is convectively contaminated.

Seeing Omega values that high, along with the almost completely saturated vertical profile, this sounding was taken inside or near an updraft.

It’s nice to look at where the updraft velocities peak between 700-500mb though.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Whens the update coming out for day 2? Considering staying up to see what it looks like.