Severe WX Severe Threat 25 March 2021

[Evan]

At this point, tomorrow is not a question of will the conditions allow a tornado outbreak to occur. It's a question of how severe will the tornado outbreak be. The floor is high, but the ceiling is simply beyond comprehension.

Feel your pain. The one in southern Jefferson goes right over mine. Thankfully, I won't be there for the event, and I'd be shocked if any model nailed a track that accurately this far out. Fingers crossed for you as well, but I see those tracks as general indicators of what a storm may do in the environment surrounding the area versus actually tracking that way precisely.

 

[TH2002]

While the conditions leading up to this tornado outbreak don't necessarily scream "EF5" for me I do see a higher likelihood of at least one intense (EF3+) tornado. May even see an EF4 or two if things line up just right. That being said, if a tornado causes one or more fatalities, then it doesn't really matter what EF rating the tornado receives. Let's hope we don't have a tornado track through a popluated area.

 

[sak]

I find it difficult to believe that the 6th biggest tornado outbreak in Alabama history can be considered overhyped just because things didn't turn out quite as bad as feared. Please, if you are going to post in this thread try contributing something constructive and pertinent to this event only.

With all due respect, calling it the 6th biggest tornado outbreak in Alabama history is a bit dramatic. 0 EF3 or higher tornadoes, no fatalities, and I don't even recall many/any serious injuries. Maybe by confirmed tornado reports, the 6th biggest but the reality is that *tons* of small tornadoes like the ones that we saw last week were missed back in the day compared to now with dual-pol radar and hundreds of storm chasers and cell phone cameras everywhere.

I wouldn't necessarily call the event overhyped because we did get a lot of tornadoes, but if we are being intellectually honest, I think it was probably somewhere like a once every 2-3 year type event. I doubt it was a top 25 event, maybe not even top 50 event if we are talking real impact.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Would it be possible to take the “last weeks event was X or Y compared to...” to a new thread and get it out of a thread that’s focused on THIS event?


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[treypops]

I'm really surprised at how slow and quiet this thread is. We've got severe storms popping off all over northeastern Texas.

 

[Tyler Penland]

I'm really surprised at how slow and quiet this thread is. We've got severe storms popping off all over northeastern Texas.

Southeast based forum. Most members are from AL/MS so general interest out west is lower.

Looks like fun around Dallas, though.

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[treypops]

Southeast based forum. Most members are from AL/MS so general interest out west is lower.

Looks like fun around Dallas, though.

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Fair enough, but there's a degree of foreboding in those Texas storms this evening.

 

[Keldeo]

Interesting Twitter Thread

 

[kcyalater]

Tony’s “table is set quote” is eerily similar to Fred’s line before 04/27/11.

 

[Richardjacks]

View attachment 7467

If the EML shows up as suggested, he is right. I would think it would start showing up in the models soon. The synoptic pattern is as classic as it gets.

BTW, EML was showing up on morning soundings to our southwest last week....sorry for the comparison, but I can't help it.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Tony’s “table is set quote” is eerily similar to Fred’s line before 04/27/11.

Tony’s “table is set quote” is eerily similar to Fred’s line before 04/27/11.

Who is going to show up tomorrow for dinner? Maybe Scary Mary along with her husband and children.

 

[Clancy]

0Z HREF UH.

 

[Richardjacks]

I am becoming a little more concerned about rotating storms along the warm front tomorrow morning. If the EML builds in, they may have trouble becoming surface rooted on the south side though.

 

[Richardjacks]

Does anyone need a cap?
0z soundings

 

[cheestaysfly]

Gearing up for a day of anxiety here in Florence!

 

[Matthew70]

Hoping for a no show on severe wx here in middle TN.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Gonna be a long night here. I'm on the western side of the county just north of Austin and I will believe my own eyes the next time I think I see a vortex on RadarScope Pro



SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of supercells are expected to persist overnight. The potential for more intense clusters
should emanate east-northeast from the Edwards Plateau towards the
I-35 corridor in central Texas.

 

[MikeP]

Ton of precipitation creeping up from the south. Guess we'll see how that affects things tomorrow....

 

[TCLwx]

Ton of precipitation creeping up from the south. Guess we'll see how that affects things tomorrow....

SVR warned cell on the southern flank of that mass.

 

[Richardjacks]

SVR warned cell on the southern flank of that mass.
View attachment 7473

The continuous warnings on this cell is proof of the quality air mass that is quickly moving in