Severe WX Severe Threat 25 March 2021

[speedbump305]

I honestly feel like it will be a high risk tomorrow. Just wait

 

[HazardousWx]

Where is a good site to see the locations of the fronts?

 

[KevinH]

I honestly feel like it will be a high risk tomorrow. Just wait

The SPC did say it is possible. I would not be surprised if they issue an upgrade overnight.

 

[Tyler Penland]

The SPC did say it is possible. I would not be surprised if they issue an upgrade overnight.

I'd be willing to bet they hold up until mid-morning to see how the any early convection is playing out. They've surprised me before, though.

 

[Casie]

Jim Cantore is in Huntsville tonight!

 

[speedbump305]

The SPC did say it is possible. I would not be surprised if they issue an upgrade overnight.

Yeah. I have a feeling it’s possible for sure. In my opinion, the ingredients are better for a high risk than March 17

 

[Richardjacks]

23z hrrrr has the rain staying around much later in the morning. Waiting for 0z runs.

 

[KevinH]

23z hrrrr has the rain staying around much later in the morning. Waiting for 0z runs.

That seems to be a popular theme here for fail modes

 

[GTWXAlum]

23z hrrrr has the rain staying around much later in the morning. Waiting for 0z runs.

I just saw that as well. Looks to be one of the main potential mitigating factors in play at the moment.

 

[Kory]

23z hrrrr has the rain staying around much later in the morning. Waiting for 0z runs.

Looks like its along some thermal boundary and that could play a roll in tomorrow's northern extent...but along and south of that is still a very favorable.

 

[AL_ham_op]

Yeah honestly it's really unfortunate, this would probably be activating statewide panic mode if not for us having had an event a week ago but no one's talking about this at all; really hope it doesn't catch people off guard if this one does verify the multiple long tracked strong/violent tor possibility

This is what happens when an event is over hyped like the one last week.

 

[Richardjacks]

I do believe it is underforecasting the cap and can even see that in model trends as the cap looks stronger

 

[speedbump305]

I do believe it is underforecasting the cap and can even see that in model trends as the cap looks stronger

I honestly feel like tomorrow should be a true high risk. I see nothing wrong with any forecast and i feel like if tomorrow holds its ingredients together. we could have a bad day tomorrow

 

[Kory]

I do believe it is underforecasting the cap and can even see that in model trends as the cap looks stronger

Definitely stronger on the 00z HRRR.

 

[Jpgood97]

If the morning convection was to eject North into say TN, how much time would be needed in north AL to destabilize before the severe storms move in? 2 hours? Less? I’ve read a lot saying the warm air will rush in quickly, but would 30-60 minutes of clearing be enough to get things going?

 

[Mike S]

This is what happens when an event is over hyped like the one last week.

I find it difficult to believe that the 6th biggest tornado outbreak in Alabama history can be considered overhyped just because things didn't turn out quite as bad as feared. Please, if you are going to post in this thread try contributing something constructive and pertinent to this event only.

 

[Richardjacks]

If the morning convection was to eject North into say TN, how much time would be needed in north AL to destabilize before the severe storms move in? 2 hours? Less? I’ve read a lot saying the warm air will rush in quickly, but would 30-60 minutes of clearing be enough to get things going?

Since we are still barely in March, with a lower sun angle, than say late April, need 1-2 hours to reach max instability. One thing about late April is that the sun is stronger, so low clouds tend to burn off quicker.

 

[Casie]

I find it difficult to believe that the 6th biggest tornado outbreak in Alabama history can be considered overhyped just because things didn't turn out quite as bad as feared. Please, if you are going to post in this thread try contributing something constructive and pertinent to this event only.

Same guy was trolling the thread last week. I wish an admin would ban him, honestly. (hint hint), lol.

 

[The Nino]

I find it difficult to believe that the 6th biggest tornado outbreak in Alabama history can be considered overhyped just because things didn't turn out quite as bad as feared. Please, if you are going to post in this thread try contributing something constructive and pertinent to this event only.

I would say a high risk that was predicated on long track violent tornadoes not producing such would be under performing by definition

 

[Richardjacks]

I would say a high risk that was predicated on long track violent tornadoes not producing such would be under performing by definition

I get your point, but that has no bearing on tomorrow whatsoever.
Glad we have the ignore button, carry on.